Minnesota Democrats weigh joining national redistricting wars
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Some Minnesota Democrats are openly discussing whether to try to redraw the state's political maps if they win control of state government in November.
Why it matters: Shaking up the district lines before the next scheduled redistricting cycle could impact both the makeup of Minnesota's elected representatives and the balance of power in Washington.
State of play: A mid-cycle partisan gerrymandering by lawmakers would be a major departure from local norms.
- That's because the Legislature in recent decades has kicked the job of designing the maps to the courts, which has limited political influence over the maps.
The big picture: Democrats in blue and purple states across the country are warming to the idea of wading into the national redistricting wars following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
Driving the news: Outgoing Gov. Tim Walz appeared to endorse the idea of state Democrats giving it a go on Friday, posting, "Minnesota is going to have a trifecta next year … just saying" in response to a court ruling in Virginia's redistricting battle.
What we're hearing: "There are so many people asking me this question, urging us to consider it," Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy (DFL-St. Paul) told Axios last week, before Walz's post.
- "The theme I hear from people in all walks of life is sometimes you have to fight fire with fire," she said, referencing concerns that the voting rights changes and ongoing redistricting efforts in GOP states could "undermine elections."
Worth noting: Murphy stopped short of endorsing the idea herself and said she hasn't "been able to give a lot of thought" to the idea amid the end-of-session negotiations at the Capitol.
The catch: The state constitution says the Legislature shall have the power to draw the boundaries "at its first session" after the U.S. Census.
- That raises questions about whether lawmakers could even make new maps before 2030 without asking voters to change the language, experts and DFL officials tell Axios.
Hamline University professor David Schultz, an expert on the state constitution, said the wording leaves room for interpretation and it's hard to predict how a court would rule.
- Murphy and other Democratic insiders believe that lawmakers would need voters to approve a constitutional amendment on the 2028 ballot to clear the path.
The intrigue: U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has supported Democratic redistricting efforts in Virginia and California, dismissed such talk as premature in interviews MPR News and the Star Tribune last week.
- The DFL gubernatorial candidate, whose campaign didn't respond to Axios' request for comment, also cited likely procedural and legal hurdles.
DFL Party Chair Richard Carlbom declined to comment via a spokesperson. A spokesperson for House DFL Leader Zack Stephenson didn't respond to Axios' inquiry on his view late last week.
The other side: House GOP Leader Harry Niska, who agrees that a constitutional amendment would be needed, told Axios he has not heard Republicans raise the idea of mid-cycle redistricting should they win majorities.
- He later framed Walz's post as showing that Democrats' "extremism in the name of 'fighting Trump' will be boundless" if they win a trifecta.
Between the lines: Waiting for voters to weigh in on a constitutional amendment in 2028 would mean new maps would be in place for only one election — 2030 — before the decennial redistricting process starts again.
Yes, but: That would still allow Democrats to create a "new baseline" that would give their side an advantage before the regularly scheduled process, Schultz said.
- Even a small edge could be consequential if Minnesota lost one of its eight congressional seats, as expected following the next population count, he added.
Reality check: Democrats would need to win the governorship and both chambers of the narrowly divided Legislature this November — and potentially hold those majorities in the next election — to even take a crack at the gambit.
- While most election forecasters favor the DFL in the governor's race, control of the House and Senate will come down to a handful of swing seats.
Plus: Partisan gerrymandering could spark political backlash, given that the current court-drawn lines represent a near-even split between DFL and GOP districts at both the state legislative and congressional levels.
- "This would infuriate lots of people [who think] that it looks like just a naked power grab." Schultz said.
"I know California's gotten away with it, Texas gotten away with it, but those are bluer and redder states than Minnesota."