How Minnesota's politeness saved the state a congressional seat
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Federal officials announced Monday that Minnesota narrowly beat out New York to hold onto all 8 of its congressional seats for the next decade.
Why it matters: Most demographers and political leaders expected the North Star State to finally lose a seat based on population estimates. That downsizing would have meant less clout in Washington.
- The 89 residents New York needed to count to surpass Minnesota and snag the 435th seat was the closest margin in decades.
- How shocking was the outcome? "Our entire office gasped," one political insider texted Axios after the results were announced.
What happened: It will take more time and analysis to understand what exactly bumped the state over the edge, but many are speculating that its nation-leading Census response rate played a role.
- "We dodged the bullet for another decade, keeping our 8th seat!" Peter Wattson, a longtime legislative redistricting expert, wrote in an email blast to advocates and media. "Congratulations to all Minnesotans for counting ourselves so well."
- Other factors — including COVID-19 deaths in New York at the start of the pandemic and a chilling factor from failed efforts to add a citizenship question — could have contributed, as MPR News notes.
Between the lines: Congressional incumbents are also breathing easier. Going to seven seats would have triggered a major overhaul of the state's political map in the upcoming redistricting process — and a game of musical chairs for members.
- Some changes are inevitable, but they'll be less drastic, especially if the maps are eventually designed by the courts as expected.
Of note: Minnesota's new official population, as of April 1, 2020, is 5,709,752. That's up 7.6% since 2010.
- It's now just 200,000 people away from passing Wisconsin — and growing twice as fast.
What's next: Full Census data showing the trends in Minnesota and beyond will be released later this year.
- Those figures will be used to craft new congressional, legislative and local districts ahead of the next elections.