School leaders warn of funding impacts of ICE-related absences

Friction point: Missed classes can also mean less money for districts under Minnesota's school funding formula, which is calculated in part based on average daily attendance.

• Students who are absent for 15 consecutive days are disenrolled under state law.

By the numbers: Fridley, where 70% of the roughly 2,700 pupils are students of color, is seeing hundreds of absences some days, even with a remote learning option, superintendent Brenda Lewis told KARE 11.

• The average daily absence rate for St. Paul Public Schools ticked up to 24% in January, preliminary data show, up from 17% in January 2025.
• Among Spanish speakers, the absence rate in St. Paul exceeded 50% on some days last month.

Threat level: Lewis told KARE 11 that 100 Fridley students have missed 15 days or are on track to hit that threshold soon.

• Removing all of them from the district's student roster could translate to $1 million in lost funding, she confirmed to Axios.

The intrigue: Virtual learning may be helping some districts stave off prolonged absences.

• St. Paul has seen over 200 students disenrolled due to the 15-day drop rule this year, down from about 300 at the same time last year, a spokesperson said.
• She credited increased efforts by staff to support families and connect them with virtual learning or other resources.
• Still, the district stands to lose $10,000 per student who is disenrolled, a district spokesperson said.

A spokesperson for Minneapolis Public Schools said the district is monitoring student attendance, but does not have an estimate for potential fiscal impacts at this time.

• She said the the district's primary focus remains supporting students, whether they are attending school in-person or online. About 6,000 students are opting for the virtual option, she said.

What they're saying: Lewis told Axios the funding questions exacerbate broader concerns about how to support students who are falling behind.

• "We have made so much progress with respect to our literacy, our math, our graduation rates. ... Now I can see it daily washing away," she said. "This is going to take years and years to rebuild, and our children don't have that time."

Between the lines: Many district leaders hope students who are absent now will eventually return.

• But even a short-term dip in students can throw off budgets that were set last summer based on enrollment trends before the ICE surge.
• "If your student count goes down, well, you're stuck with those expenses," Association of Metropolitan School Districts executive director Scott Croonquist told Axios, noting that teacher contracts and other expenses were locked in months ago.

Some schools are also shouldering other costs connected to the ICE surge, Croonquist said, such as adding bus stops and security, bringing in mental health counselors and purchasing WiFi hotspots or other technology for students participating in e-learning.

• Federal meal reimbursements and la carte sales at cafeterias — an under-the-radar revenue driver — are also down in some districts.

Worth noting: Many districts were dealing with declining enrollment and budget pressures even before the immigration operation, and it can be difficult to determine why students stopped showing up — and whether they'll return.

What's next: DFL lawmakers and some school officials plan to push the Department of Education and the divided Legislature to "hold districts harmless" financially for absences incurred during the surge this year.

• Those proposals will be on the table when the Legislature returns next week.