Feb 14, 2025 - Politics

Tina Smith retirement tees up rare open Senate seat battle royale

Torey Van Oot

Tim Walz, Peggy Flanagan, Angie Craig and Ilhan Omar — Gov. Tim Walz, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar are among the candidates considering a run for U.S. Senate. Photos: Justin Sullivan, Mandel Ngan, Stephen Maturen, Kent Nishimura via Getty Images

U.S. Sen. Tina Smith's announcement that she won't run again in 2026 could tee up a high-profile battle royale featuring some of Minnesota's biggest political stars.

The big picture: Open statewide seats are rare — the last time a U.S. Senate seat was open in Minnesota was 2008 — and there's a deep bench of state Democrats itching for a shot at a bigger gig.

An incumbent-less field also makes the November race more competitive, improving Republicans' chances of breaking a statewide losing streak dating back to 2006.

State of play: Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who shares a consultant with Smith, was first out of the gate by announcing on Instagram that she intends to run for the seat shortly after the news broke.

Gov. Tim Walz, who was already mulling whether to run for a third term as governor, hasn't ruled out a bid of his own, a source familiar with his thinking confirmed to Axios.

Between the lines: A fallout between the two allies following Walz's vice presidential campaign had already raised questions about whether they would run as a ticket again if Walz decided to seek a third term as governor.

Smith's decision creates a path for one — or both — of them to instead run for U.S. Senate.

What we're hearing: DFL Secretary of State Steve Simon is weighing a bid and U.S. Reps. Angie Craig, Ilhan Omar and Kelly Morrison have been urged to run, Axios has learned.

As for Republicans, potential candidates include state Sen. Julia Coleman, state Rep. Kristin Robbins and Ryan Wilson, the 2022 auditor candidate who came the closest to winning on the GOP side that year.

State Sen. Karin Housley, who ran against Smith in 2018, isn't ruling it out, and U.S. Rep. Pete Stauber didn't shoot down the idea in a statement to Axios.

Royce White, the GOP's 2024 U.S. Senate nominee, and Adam Schwarze, a former congressional candidate and Navy Seal, are also expected to run.

Who's out: Former U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, former U.S. Sen. Al Franken, U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty have all said they won't seek the seat.

Reality check: Not everyone considering it will actually jump in.

Some of the floated candidates are also interested in running for governor or another statewide office in 2026. Others may want to be in the mix to boost their own relevancy.

The bottom line: More musical chairs will be ahead, as could-be candidates shift their plans based on who's in — or out — of the race.

What Walz decides could play a big role both in how the DFL field shakes out and which Republicans jump in.

Axios' Andrew Solender contributed to this report.

Add Axios on Google

Tina Smith retirement tees up rare open Senate seat battle royale

More Twin Cities stories