Dreaming of a white Christmas? Forecast shows there's a chance

• Those events, combined with a weekend cold snap, could transform our damp, brown ground into a winter wonderland just in time for Santa's sleigh to land.

Yes, but: The forecast also shows a "very rapid warm-up" in the days before Christmas, NWS Twin Cities meteorologist Ryan Dunleavy told Axios.

• The "million-dollar question," he said, is how much snow we get Thursday and how fast those temperatures rise above freezing to melt what precipitation we do get.

State of play: A white Christmas — defined by at least an inch of snow on the ground — happens 71% of the time in the Twin Cities, according to state records dating back more than 120 years.

• The percentage has been slightly higher in the last 20 years.

Threat level: Winters are getting warmer and several recent holiday seasons, including 2023 and 2021, saw a "brown Christmas" with no measurable snow on the ground.

What we're watching: The Thursday system is predicted to drop 3 to 6 inches on the state, with higher ends of that range across North Central Minnesota, Dunleavy said. The Twin Cities is more likely to get two to three inches of snow.

• But any deviation to the south could lead to bigger totals here in the metro, lowering the likelihood of a total melt-off.

The big picture: While December is running a little colder than what's typical, 2024 is on track to be at least the third-warmest year on record for average temperature, Dunleavy said.

⛸️ 1 silver lining: Even if the snow doesn't stick around, low temperatures at the end of the week could help lock in opportunities for winter fun over the holiday break.

• The Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board, which is hoping to get its outdoor rinks open by Saturday, will provide a status update later today.
• Several in St. Paul are already up and running.