Dreaming of a white Christmas? Forecast shows there's a chance
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A white Christmas could still be in the cards for the Twin Cities, but it's no sure thing.
Driving our dreams: Two chances of snow are in the forecast this week, including a Thursday system that could drop several inches on the metro.
- Those events, combined with a weekend cold snap, could transform our damp, brown ground into a winter wonderland just in time for Santa's sleigh to land.
Yes, but: The forecast also shows a "very rapid warm-up" in the days before Christmas, NWS Twin Cities meteorologist Ryan Dunleavy told Axios.
- The "million-dollar question," he said, is how much snow we get Thursday and how fast those temperatures rise above freezing to melt what precipitation we do get.
State of play: A white Christmas — defined by at least an inch of snow on the ground — happens 71% of the time in the Twin Cities, according to state records dating back more than 120 years.
- The percentage has been slightly higher in the last 20 years.
Threat level: Winters are getting warmer and several recent holiday seasons, including 2023 and 2021, saw a "brown Christmas" with no measurable snow on the ground.
What we're watching: The Thursday system is predicted to drop 3 to 6 inches on the state, with higher ends of that range across North Central Minnesota, Dunleavy said. The Twin Cities is more likely to get two to three inches of snow.
- But any deviation to the south could lead to bigger totals here in the metro, lowering the likelihood of a total melt-off.
The big picture: While December is running a little colder than what's typical, 2024 is on track to be at least the third-warmest year on record for average temperature, Dunleavy said.
⛸️ 1 silver lining: Even if the snow doesn't stick around, low temperatures at the end of the week could help lock in opportunities for winter fun over the holiday break.
- The Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board, which is hoping to get its outdoor rinks open by Saturday, will provide a status update later today.
- Several in St. Paul are already up and running.
