Homicides rattle St. Paul, as other crime metrics decline
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A string of 11 homicides in the last two months has rattled St. Paul, darkening a year in which other types of crime appeared to be subsiding, according to an Axios analysis of police call data.
The big picture: To police and city officials, the killings illustrate the threat guns in the wrong hands pose to public safety and underscore the fear of violence some residents face.
The latest: On Friday, police said a drive-by shooting killed a man seated in a parked car with two young children near St. Paul's Rondo Library.
- The department said it was the city's 29th homicide of 2024. With just over a month to go, that's three fewer killings than last year (32).
What they're saying: Few common threads link the shootings, police chief Axel Henry told reporters — but, he added, "they almost all fall into this category: they involve guns, they involve terrible decisions, and they involve a level of violence we can't accept in our city."
- Nine of the 11 homicides involved guns, according to a Star Tribune count.
Threat level: Prominent leaders in St. Paul's Black community called for an end to the violence this month, urging interventions from both city officials and residents.
- State figures show 51% of the city's recent assault and homicide victims were Black. Black residents make up 15% of St. Paul's population.
- "If men in our community stand up, little boys will sit down," African American Leadership Council president Tyrone Terrill told reporters.
Yes, but: Some efforts to decrease gun violence appear to be paying off.
- So far this year, 95 people have suffered nonfatal gunshot wounds, well behind two years ago, when there were 193, Henry said.
- Police are also solving or closing nonfatal shooting cases at double last year's rate, department spokesperson Sgt. Mike Ernster told Axios.
The good news: A broader look at preliminary police data shows St. Paul has seen fewer calls for burglaries, robberies and thefts in 2024 — compared with averages both from the previous three years and from before the pandemic.
Between the lines: Ernster credited a focus on intervention programs that offer people resources that "interrupt that cycle of crime." He added, "We know we can't enforce our way out of everything."
- He touted a city partnership with a nonprofit domestic violence intervention group, saying it helps explain a dramatic drop in those calls this year.
- Similar partnerships "have successfully helped to reduce the high rates of auto thefts and gun violence from years past," Mayor Melvin Carter added in a statement to Axios.
Reality check: Carter's office is monitoring a spike in other types of crime.
Stunning stat: One out of every five narcotics calls in St. Paul this year has come from within a four-block radius of the Snelling & University transit hub, Axios' analysis found.
- Midway's neighborhood group recently declared a crisis stemming from homelessness, drug use and vacant properties in the area.
- Outside this area, narcotics calls are actually down slightly.
Plus: Aggravated assault calls in 2024 are on pace to eclipse a peak in 2020.
- The Dayton's Bluff (99%) and Greater East Side (81%) neighborhoods have seen the sharpest year-to-date increases in assault calls.