Minnesota's days of swing U.S. House seats appear over for now
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Minnesota may no longer be the land of competitive congressional races.
State of play: All eight of Minnesota's U.S. House districts were won by double-digit margins this year.
- DFL U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, the sole incumbent running in a swing district, sailed to a fourth term with a 13-point victory.
The big picture: The deepening urban-rural political divide has made the state's metro and suburban seats more blue and Greater Minnesota districts increasingly safe for the GOP.
Flashback: As recently as 2018, five of Minnesota's eight congressional districts were seen as in play.
- Outside groups spent record sums to flood the airwaves with ads in the metro that year.
Zoom in: The south metro's 2nd Congressional District, which Craig carried by just 2 points in 2020, started the cycle in election forecasters' "lean" Democrat column.
- But the levels of outside spending typical of a battleground race never materialized, and it was downgraded to "likely" Democrat in the final days of the campaign.
- Craig's margin of victory was more than double that of the Harris-Walz ticket in the district.
What we're hearing: "I would officially say I do not see her as a vulnerable incumbent," Christopher Chapp, a political science professor at St. Olaf College who conducts exit polling in the district, told Axios.
Between the lines: While Craig's moderate voting record shows she has a "finger on the pulse of the district," she also has "demographic change on her side" given population growth in parts of the district that lean Democratic.
- "With every passing election you're going to see the south metro — Eagan, Burnsville, Apple Valley — voters in those districts get a little bit bluer," Chapp said of the district's fastest growing areas.
Yes, but: If Craig decided not to run again, an open seat could veer back into more competitive territory, with stronger recruitment and increased spending, he predicted.
The intrigue: Incumbents are seen as most vulnerable in their first reelection and in their first race after redistricting.
- All seven U.S. House members who were on the ballot this year have cleared those hurdles.
What we're watching: Minnesota barely held onto all eight of its seats in the last reapportionment process, and experts believe we're all but destined to lose one after the 2030 Census.
- If that happens, and the maps are redrawn with just seven districts, "all hell breaks loose," Hamline University political science professor David Schultz told Axios at a recent Minneapolis Regional Chamber panel.
1 silver lining: While many see more competition as good for voters — and democracy — a dearth of battleground seats means fewer political ads flooding the airwaves.