Everything you need to know about Arizona's CD1 election
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Jay Feely and Amish Shah. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images; Patrick T. Fallon/AFP
Arizona's 1st Congressional District race is testing whether Scottsdale voters prefer a repeat Democratic nominee with a bipartisan legislative record or a Trump-backed celebrity who lives outside the district.
Why it matters: The affluent, independent-heavy district is among a handful of seats that could determine control of the House.
Meet the candidates:
By the numbers: In this swing district — which include Scottsdale, parts of northeast Phoenix, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek — Republicans make up 38% of registered voters, compared with 35% who are independent or registered with another party and over 26% who are Democrats.
- Trump carried CD1 by about 3 points in 2024, while Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee, lost to Republican David Schweikert by 3.8 points that same year.
Driving the news: Drive around Scottsdale and you're likely to spot signs reading, "Support your local socialist, Amish Shah."
- The Feely campaign signs are an effort to portray Shah — who holds a moderate voting record and multiple police endorsements — as a far-left extremist.
- Shah points to his bipartisan legislative record to rebut the socialist label, KJZZ reported.
But the labeling cuts both ways: Shah is trying to define Feely as a rubber stamp for President Trump, whose endorsement Feely leaned on heavily during the primary.
- Feely says he would buck Trump when Arizona's interests are at stake.
Zoom in: Feely, a longtime Gilbert resident, switched from the CD5 race to CD1 at Trump's urging, and he says his relationship with Trump would give Arizona a direct line to the White House.
- But he's also tried to show some independence by pushing back on the administration's proposed Colorado River cuts.
- Republican consultant Barrett Marson tells Axios Feely's best path is to keep the race focused on local issues because a campaign dominated by Trump and national economic concerns would likely hurt him.
Between the lines: The race could come down to whether CD1's large bloc of independent voters turns out.
- "If independents show up in big numbers, it favors Shah. If they don't, it favors Feely," pollster Marcus Dell'Artino told the Arizona Capitol Times.
Zoom out: Despite the district's Republican registration advantage, Cook Political Report rates the race "lean Democratic," while Inside Elections, which also provides nonpartisan analysis, calls it "tilt Democratic."
What's next: The last day to request an early voting ballot is Friday. Election Day is Nov. 3.