How to survive San Francisco's brutal rental market
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Illustration: Victoria Ellis/Axios
Looking for a new apartment? Maybe reconsider.
The big picture: San Francisco's market is rough right now — so rough that some real estate professionals' top advice is to just stay put if you can.
Why it matters: Between record-breaking rents, packed showings and bidding wars over ordinary apartments, finding a place can turn into a second job.
By the numbers: This year, the median one-bedroom crossed $4,000 for the first time, and the median two-bedroom hit $5,700, the priciest in the country, per Zumper.
- San Francisco rents are up about 22% year over year, the steepest jump of any U.S. city.
Driving the news: Aggressive AI hiring and return-to-office rules are flooding the city with high earners looking for a place to live.
What they're saying: "My advice for locals who have the choice is wait until the winter when the market cools down," Lisa McCarrel, managing partner of relocation firm Move Bay Area, tells Axios.
Yes, but: Not everyone has that luxury.
- Here are some tips to make the best of a bad situation if you need to find a place now.
Know where the heat is. Hayes Valley, the Mission, downtown, East Cut and North Beach are all on fire, driven by AI. Expect 10%–20% over asking in the hottest neighborhoods, McCarrel says.
Be ready to move in fast. When a listing has a surplus of qualified applicants, the biggest tiebreaker is who is offering the earliest move-in date, says Christopher Meza, who manages 195-plus buildings.
- That may mean eating an extra month of rent before your current lease expires.
Read the room. Most of the agents we talked to didn't encourage bidding over asking, but if you see a place that's been on Zillow two days with 50 inquiries, it's going to rent above asking, says McCarrel.
Target specific landlords. Renters can find deals in rent-controlled units by working directly with large firms like Brick & Timber and RentSFNow, which buy and renovate aging buildings, says Inna Rubinchik, regional leasing director at Compass.
- She suggests pinging brokers regularly to find out about openings before they're advertised.
Avoid scams. Insist on an in-person tour, says Meza, who adds that he doesn't accept applicants who haven't seen a unit. It weeds out scammers and avoids disappointment later if a building's pictures don't match its IRL vibe.
The bottom line: As overwhelming as it feels, Meza says, vacancies do come up: "You are going to secure a place."