California's falling undocumented immigrant population
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California still has the largest population of undocumented immigrants in America, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center.
- But the state experienced the biggest decrease — a loss of 150,000 immigrants — between 2017 and 2021, per the study's estimates.
State of play: The Pew Research Center puts the U.S.' undocumented population at 10.5 million in 2021, which is the latest available data.
- Around 1.85 million were in California and accounted for about 5% of its total population.
Zoom in: San Francisco County recorded roughly 43,000 undocumented immigrants in 2019, per an analysis by the think tank Migration Policy Institute.
- China and Hong Kong were the leading regions of birth, followed by Mexico and El Salvador, the analysis found.
Between the lines: While San Francisco has long held itself as a sanctuary city that welcomes immigrants, increasing concern over fentanyl trafficking has led local officials to consider excluding fentanyl felony dealing from protections against deportation.
- Polling earlier this year found that 70% of potential San Francisco voters supported the move.
Yes, but: Immigration advocates counter that many undocumented immigrants end up in positions of drug dealing against their will and that such punitive policies have proved ineffective.
- Data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission also shows that U.S. citizens made up 88% of federal fentanyl trafficking offenders in the 2022 fiscal year.
Of note: Local community-based organizations say they are concerned that rising anti-immigrant rhetoric across the nation — especially comments made by national figures — could lead to an uptick in hate incidents in the Bay Area.
- "We are really still very much in an anti-immigrant climate, where immigrants are being blamed for a whole host of issues, national security to the fentanyl crisis and crime," Cynthia Choi, co-executive director of San Francisco-based nonprofit Chinese for Affirmative Action, told Axios.
The big picture: The population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. is becoming more diverse, and Mexicans now have the smallest share they've ever had, the Pew study notes.
Why it matters: Geopolitical conflicts, climate change and more sophisticated smuggling networks are driving more migrants from Central America, the Caribbean, South America, Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa to make dangerous journeys to the U.S. without permission, absent many legal options for entry.
Details: There were an estimated 4.1 million Mexicans living in the U.S. without authorization in 2021, or 39% of the undocumented population — their lowest share in recent history.
- After Mexicans, the largest share of the unauthorized population are, in descending order, Salvadorans, Indians, Guatemalans and Hondurans.
Caveat: The new estimates do not reflect the past two years of historically large numbers of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.
What they're saying: "We're getting unauthorized immigrants from all parts of the world now in ways that we didn't used to," Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew Research Center and author of the report, tells Axios.