Trump's election win shows surging Latino support
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President-elect Trump saw a boost in support from South Florida Latinos. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Hispanic voters fueled President-elect Donald Trump's historic victory in Florida, helping him become the first Republican presidential contender to carry Miami-Dade since 1988.
Why it matters: Miami-Dade County had in recent years already begun shifting to the right, with the Hispanic vote carrying Gov. Ron DeSantis to victory in 2022.
- But Trump winning the majority-Hispanic county underscores the inroads Republicans have made in courting this group of voters, particularly Cuban Americans.
Driving the news: Latino voters shifted heavily toward Trump across the country, with 54% of Latino men supporting the president-elect this year, compared to just 36% in 2020, an exit poll by Edison Research showed.
- That's because Democrats failed to give Latinos a clear economic message while Trump focused on it in all his rallies and commercials, University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina tells Axios Latino.
Between the lines: A Florida International University poll prior to the election found that 68% of Cubans in Miami-Dade planned to vote for Trump.
- The 2024 Cuba Poll indicated the economy, immigration and access to health care were the top issues for Miami Republicans.
Zoom in: In Florida, Trump earned 58% of the Latino vote, per an NBC exit poll, with 64% of Latino men supporting him.
- In Miami-Dade, he earned more than 54% of the vote overall. Hillary Clinton won the county with 63% of the vote in 2016, and President Biden won it with 53% in 2020.
Yes, but: Miami-Dade GOP chairman and House Representative Alex Rizo cautioned against the public misreading local turnout and trends.
- "Yes, the majority of people who voted for [Trump] here are Hispanic, but that's also just the electorate here," Rizo told Axios Wednesday. "Our turnout was historic, but was it a Hispanic-centric thing? I don't think so. [It's more] an alignment with conservative values."
- The county has seen "not so much a gain of more registration as Republicans, though we have seen that, but overwhelmingly, we've seen a loss in Democratic registration" since 2020, he added.
The other side: Ana Sofía Peláez, co-founder and executive director of Miami Freedom Project, a progressive group, told Axios it's important to understand how the campaigns' investments in Miami-Dade affected Latino turnout and support for Trump.
- Many Latinos have said campaigns rarely or never contacted them – until recently.
The bottom line: "Ultimately, the Latino vote is a persuasion vote and I don't think either party necessarily has an understanding of how to speak to them," Peláez said.