Support for Trump grows among Miami's Cuban Americans
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Trump supporters rally in front of Cuban restaurant Versailles in 2020. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/AFP via Getty Images
Support for former President Donald Trump is growing among Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade, according to a recently released Florida International University poll.
Why it matters: Latino voters are expected to play a key role in this year's election and Cuban Americans make up about half of Miami-Dade's total Hispanic population.
By the numbers: The 2024 FIU Cuba Poll, the longest-running survey of Cuban Americans in the country, found that 68% of Cubans in Miami-Dade County plan to vote for President Trump.
- That's a nearly ten percentage point increase from 2020, when the same poll found that 59% supported him.
- In 2016, just 35% of those surveyed supported him.
Yes, but: The survey found that Cuban Americans born outside of Cuba aren't as inclined to support the former president.
- Of those surveyed, 46% of non-Cuban-born Americans say they will vote for Trump while 44% said they will vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Between the lines: The poll surveyed 1,001 Cuban Americans between Sept. 25 and Oct. 9.
- The economy, immigration and access to health care were the top issues for Republicans.
- Access to health care, access to safe abortion care and the economy were top issues for Democrats.
What they're saying: "Cuban Americans born outside of Cuba being the exception, the Cuban American community remains loyal to the Republican Party and the Trump version of it," wrote Guillermo Grenier, lead investigator on the Cuba Poll, in the survey's findings.
The other side: "Polls are a snapshot [in time]. It depends on who you're asking and how you're asking," Miami-Dade Democratic Party First Vice Chair Millie Herrera tells Axios.
- She acknowledged that "most Cuban Americans will vote for Trump," but doesn't believe it's as many as the poll suggests.
- The local Democratic party in recent years reactivated its grassroots efforts to reach Hispanic voters, she said, adding, "I really do think Amendment 4 is driving women to vote."
The bottom line: Trump's popularity in Miami-Dade among Hispanic voters, including Cuban Americans, is nothing new. The former president won Florida in 2020 largely because of the Hispanic vote.
- And in 2022, Hispanic voters were crucial to securing a victory for Republicans like Gov. Ron DeSantis, who became the first GOP gubernatorial candidate to win the county in two decades.