Colorado's early vote lags but shows promise for Dems
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More than 1 million Colorado voters have cast ballots in the 2026 election.
Yes, but: With less than a week to go, turnout lags the prior midterm cycle, an exclusive Axios analysis finds.
Why it matters: Colorado's lengthy and complicated ballot is likely contributing to the slow start — setting the stage for a late surge that could delay vote counting and results.
State of play: The state counted 1,109,631 ballots through Tuesday, representing just 24% of registered voters.
- That's roughly on pace with the 2022 midterms but almost 40% below 2024 election levels.
By the numbers: Statewide, 32% of Democratic registered voters have cast ballots, compared with 27% of Republicans.
- Just 20% of unaffiliated voters — who make up more than half of the electorate — have turned out to vote so far.
The intrigue: The turnout picture is more blue, with Democrats voting at higher rates than their share of the electorate.
The fine print: Our analysis measures all registered voters, not just "active voters" who receive mail ballots, which is how the state inflates its turnout numbers.
The big picture: If unaffiliated voters stayed on the sidelines — an unlikely outcome — it would deliver a huge blow to Democrats.
- About 60% of unaffiliated voters typically side with Democrats in Colorado.
Zoom in: In El Paso County — the state's most populous county — turnout stands at 23%.
- So far, 33% of Democrats have voted, compared with 28% of Republicans.
Meanwhile, turnout is even softer in deep-blue Denver at 18%.
- Just 24% of Denver's Democrats have voted, even though they make up a 38% share of registered voters.
- Republican turnout is 19%, which is a higher rate than their share of the electorate.
What we're watching: A final-days ballot rush, particularly in Denver, and whether unaffiliated voters close the gap to boost the party's fortunes.