Weiser's fundraising most aligns with Gov. Jared Polis'
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Notes: Each square in the graphic represents 10 donors. Data: TRACER; Image courtesy of Brad Jones
In the Democratic race for governor, Phil Weiser's fundraising aligns the closest with current Gov. Jared Polis, a new analysis shows.
Why it matters: Endorsements and fundraising are key indicators of a candidate's strength in the early days of a campaign, often known as the invisible primary.
The big picture: In the 2018 and 2022 elections, Polis assembled winning coalitions of small-dollar donors that now serve as a road map to victory for the current candidates.
- He self-funded his campaign and put a voluntary cap on donations, but still counted 12,000 contributors who gave him at least $20, according to an analysis by Brad Jones, an independent researcher with experience at YouGov and the Pew Research Center, who shared his findings with Axios Denver.
State of play: Weiser, the current attorney general, has received more campaign cash from past Polis donors than his primary rival, U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, Jones found.
- About 12% of Weiser's donors also contributed to Polis' campaigns, compared to 8% of Bennet's donors.
The intrigue: About 80% of Polis' donors have not contributed to either campaign through Dec. 31, reflecting how Democrats remain split in the primary election.
- About 650 donors have given to both Weiser and Bennet in the governor's race.
Caveat: The analysis looked at 41,000 contributions from individual donors to Weiser and Bennet and compared them by name and ZIP code to Polis' donors.
- The linkage of donors is likely incomplete because of how campaigns enter donor information into the state's database. If anything, Jones tells us, the estimated overlap in the campaigns is a conservative tally.
What we're watching: Looking ahead, both gubernatorial candidates will need to do more to tap into their donor bases and lure Polis' contributors to their side, Jones says.
- Bennet holds the advantage because he accumulated a larger donor pool in his bids for the U.S. Senate than Weiser did in his prior two campaigns for attorney general.
The other side: Democratic candidates have raised eight times as much as Republicans, Jones found.
- The two front-runners, military veteran Victor Marx and state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, received about the same portion of their contributions from donors to President Trump's campaigns. However, Marx has far more Trump donors on his side because he's raised more money.
- Marx is also receiving more contributions from first-time donors than Kirkmeyer, who is drawing money from established GOP donors.
The bottom line: The limited fundraising in the GOP race reflects the party's uphill battle in the November election.