Colorado's uncertain 2026 economic outlook
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Colorado's economy is projected to cook low and slow in 2026, a new report shows.
Why it matters: It's the state's new norm, according to the annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook — the gold-standard forecast for policymakers and C-suite executives.
What they're saying: "This is really about the slowest growth that we've seen outside … a recession," says Brian Lewandowski, an author of the report from the University of Colorado Boulder's Leeds School of Business.
State of play: Here are three takeaways for next year.
1. The economic forecast is not predicting a recession in 2026.
- Three factors are driving that outlook. The state's positive GDP growth is projected at 2% to 3%; employment is holding steady; and consumer spending remains strong.
Yes, but: "Given that we're sort of teetering with some of these economic metrics, it is plausible that we could have a recession in the near future," Richard Wobbekind at CU Boulder told us. If it happens, he adds, it's expected in 2027.
2. Job numbers remain flat. Colorado employment is expected to grow a mere 0.6%, or 17,500 jobs in 2026, slightly up from the 0.4% rate this year.
- Likewise, the estimated unemployment rate will moderately improve to 4.1%, down from 4.5% in 2025.
Zoom in: Industries expected to see positive growth include education and health services and government, while professional and technical services, and leisure and hospitality post negative numbers.
3. Colorado led the nation in economic rankings from 2009 to 2024, and bright spots remain visible in the data.
- Personal income grew 5% in 2025 and per capita personal income grew 4.3%.
The intrigue: The slowdown in population growth — estimated at less than 1% in 2026 — will ease demand for housing after years of shortfalls.
The bottom line: "I've been doing this a long time, and I haven't really seen an environment quite like this that's so low on net immigration and so low on job growth, yet not recessionary," Wobbekind told us.