Jul 29, 2023 - Real Estate

Dallas residents eye Denver, Zillow data suggests

Data: Zillow; Note: Origins include the entire metro area; Chart: Axios Visuals
Data: Zillow; Note: Origins include the entire metro area; Chart: Axios Visuals

People continue to move to Denver to get the best of both worlds β€” big city living surrounded by nature.

Why it matters: Most pre-pandemic moves were motivated by job changes; now, housing affordability is driving cross-state relocations, experts say.

What's happening: "After marijuana was legalized, the city exploded," Compass agent David DiPetro says.

  • Companies also like Denver's low taxes and central location, DiPetro says.

Driving the news: Colorado saw the 18th-largest population growth by percentage, recent census figures show.

Of note: Denver saw a dip in population, but counties outside of the metro are growing. Most demand lives in the suburbs right now.

Zoom in: Roughly 70% of page views for Denver-area Zillow listings are from locals, according to first-quarter Zillow data shared with Axios.

  • Of the top 10 metros where searches originate from, half are out of state. Dallas-Fort Worth was the No. 2 origin in 2022 and 2023.
  • Of note: Compared to the same time last year, there hasn't been a huge shift in search traffic patterns. However, San Francisco dropped from the top 10 list.

The big picture: Since 2021, there's been an exodus from high-cost tech hubs along the West Coast β€” including the Bay area and Seattle β€” for more affordable mountain region states and Texas, says Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr.

  • On the East Coast, people left New York and headed south to Philly, the Carolinas and Florida, he adds.

Yes, but: "We're seeing a big pullback in migration right now," Marr tells Axios.

  • It's simply too expensive for most people to buy right now. Across the U.S., the number of Redfin users searching for homes within their metro is down 18% from a year ago, per a June report.
  • Meanwhile, the number of users surfing listings in a new area dropped by 7%.

Between the lines: If people are moving right now, it's in search of cheaper housing elsewhere, Marr says.

The intrigue: Domestic migration has scaled back, but we're seeing a resurgence of immigration, Marr says.

What's next: Growing environmental concerns will start to influence migration patterns, though affordability will likely still be the No. 1 driver, Marr predicts.

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