Denver homes are cheaper, but inventory issues persist

Denver's real estate market is slowing down, but a substantial lack of inventory will prevent home prices from crashing, says Bret Weinstein, CEO of Guide Real Estate.

What's happening: Home prices in Denver appreciated 22% within a four-month span in 2022, Weinstein says. So it's natural for prices to come down some.

There's still a shortage of homes. If mortgage rates were to drop to 4%, Denver home values could skyrocket once again, Weinstein forecasts.

• "We have more of a floor for us, in terms of prices, than a ceiling," he says.

By the numbers: Median home sale prices are down 7.7% year-over-year, per March MLS data RE/MAX shared with Axios.

• Inventory is up 169% year-over-year and 6.4% from February to March.
• Homes are moving off the market quicker in spring, but nowhere near as fast as this time last year. They sold 11 days faster in March than February, but are sitting much longer than this time last year.

Of note: Inventory has improved since 2022, but real estate data is just a snapshot in time, Weinstein says. There aren't a lot of houses for sale, and there aren't a lot of buyers right now.

The big picture: Two different real estate markets are playing out across the country, with home prices falling in the West and rising in the East.

Every market has been hot in recent years. Now, the market is rebalancing, with more volatility on the coasts.

• "There's no such thing as a national real estate market," Bailey says.

Generally, homebuyers are migrating West to East in search of a more affordable lifestyle, RE/MAX president and CEO Nick Bailey tells Axios.

Yes, but: There are exceptions.

• Texas home prices have experienced plenty of turbulence because of unprecedented amounts of people flocking there, Bailey says.
• The D.C. area, Bailey says, is always a wildcard: "There's never anything statistically normal about D.C. to forecast on."

What we're watching: Inventory. The number of homes for sale would need to increase to three to four months' supply for the market to truly balance out, Bailey says.