NCDOT's own forecast shows I-77 toll lanes could increase traffic up to 44%
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The N.C. Department of Transportation's own projections show that building the I-77 South toll lanes could increase traffic volume on the interstate by up to 44%, according to an email exchange obtained by Axios.
Why it matters: The state is moving forward with spending $600 million in public funds for a highway widening that will primarily improve travel times for people who can afford to pay.
Driving the news: Emails between a contractor on the I-77 South project and a homeowner in Clanton Park, which is along the proposed toll corridor, discussed whether the team studied induced demand, the idea that highway widenings incentivize driving and fail to relieve congestion long term.
- "The traffic forecast indicates that within the I-77 project limits, I-77 volumes will be 8% to 44% higher under Build conditions compared to No-Build conditions," the project team member responded.
- The area between the I-485 and I-277/Belk interchanges would see the most increase, according to the contractor in the email exchange.
What they're saying: NCDOT says induced demand generally does not apply to toll lanes, and traffic is expected to increase "with or without this project," exceeding 200,000 cars per day by 2050. Although, the email correspondence noted that regional growth projections were steady in the model.
- "Anytime you widen a road, you will see an increase in traffic," NCDOT spokesperson Jen Goodwin tells Axios. "However, this project also increases overall capacity along the corridor by adding two express lanes in each direction, which will help improve overall travel times and reduce the crash rate."
- NCDOT says it is managing congestion through variable tolling, meaning the paid option has an established minimum speed limit and a "reliable travel time."
Reality check: Not everyone will be able to afford the reliability.
- Traveling the I-77 North tolls for 23 miles around rush hour could cost around $28.85 with a transponder or $43 without, according to a WSOC report tracking prices.
What's next: NCDOT plans to send out its first draft of the request for proposals this June, with the environmental study not completed until next year.