The worst may be behind us — but COVID isn’t over

Testing demand is down, the weather is getting nicer, there’s less community spread, masks have largely come off and fewer people are being hospitalized.

• “We can have some hope that the worst is behind us — but that doesn’t mean that the pandemic is over,” Dr. Charles Bregier of Novant Health tells Axios. “We don’t want to say COVID is over; we want to still be cautious.”

We’re entering a phase of the pandemic where we have to learn to live with the virus, Bregier says.

• COVID is becoming more endemic — meaning it’s a circulating virus out in the community causing some people to get sick, hospitalized and die, but at a much, much lower rate.

Yes but: New variants can arise, giving way to new surges.

“At the end of the day, the reason we have these variants is because so many people are unvaccinated,” Bregier says.

• Moderna and Pfizer both recently asked the FDA for emergency use authorization for a fourth COVID shot.
• Bregier says he is “moderately concerned” about the new BA.2 variant, which is causing cases to rise in places like the U.K.

What’s more, Breiger adds, it’d be hard to revert back to strict COVID restrictions and masking now that so many such rules have been relaxed.

• “It will be difficult to get people to start masking universally indoors,” Bregier says. “We’re all sick of it and I understand that.”

By the numbers: The percentage of COVID cases turning up positive is 2.3% in North Carolina, per the NCDHHS — way down from the nearly 40% at the height of the omicron surge this winter.

• 72% of the adult population statewide is fully vaccinated, according to state data.
• 723 COVID patients are in the hospital statewide, far fewer than at the peak of the omicron surge.

As testing demand has waned, StarMed has staffed down at its facilities across the region, CEO Mike Estramonte says. “We’ve been fortunate to have staff understand (and) come back when needed,” he tells Axios.

Zoom out: Last week, Gov. Roy Cooper said that we’ve begun a new phase of pandemic response, one marked by “individual responsibility, preparedness and prosperity.”

• “Today we can look forward with the belief that the worst is behind us,” Cooper said during a press conference.
• “It’s time to chart a new course. This virus will still be with us but it won’t disrupt us,” he added.

Between the lines: This time last year, we weren’t all totally boosted, but many of us may be having déjà vu from last spring.

• People were starting to get vaccinated, cases were dropping, the CDC updated its guidance and it felt like there was light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.
• And just like that, we dove back into the darkness as mask mandates came back.

The bottom line: The pandemic isn’t over. And to avoid surges stemming from future variants, experts still urge people to get vaccinated and boosted ASAP if they haven’t already.