How a long-range forecast got Texas' July wrong
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As a catastrophically rainy July comes to a close, we looked back at the federal Climate Predication Center's long-range precipitation forecast (👆) issued June 30.
The big picture: Meteorologists had forecast below-normal rainfall in July for Central Texas.
What happened: Through Tuesday, a shade over six inches of rain had fallen in Austin this month.
- That's about 330% more than the normal July amount through July 29 — 1.84 inches.
What they're saying: Jon Gottschalck, a meteorologist who helps oversee the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks, tells Axios that computer models and weather observations suggested that the "abundant moisture" was going to materialize further west, in New Mexico.
- "Precipitation is always highly variable in time and space, especially during the late spring and summer months" that lead to thunderstorms. But, he added, "the predictability of this catastrophic event was unusually low even for this time of the year."
The bottom line: Even in our modern age of satellites and doppler, weather can be viciously capricious.