Our economy, "cleared for landing"
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The Texas economy exceeded expectations in 2023 after earlier worries of a national recession, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Why it matters: Economists had projected a soft landing for Texas in 2023, predicting it would avoid a major economic downturn if the national economy took a hit.
The big picture: The Texas labor force grew last year at its fastest pace in decades and outpaced growth nationwide, Dallas Fed senior economist Pia Orrenius said at a recent economic outlook event.
- The state's job growth is expected to cool this year to pre-pandemic figures. "We're cleared for landing."
Yes, but: Job growth in high-performing Austin slowed to 2.9% in 2023 because of turmoil in the tech industry.
- And Austin home prices remained on a downward trajectory as 2023 closed — the Austin Board of Realtors has reported that the median price for a house in greater Austin decreased in 2023 by 10.2%, to $450,000.
State of play: Texas had the country's fifth-highest job growth by percentage last year. Nevada was first.
- Employment was up 3.1% in Texas, compared to 2% nationwide.
Threat level: Texas firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in December listed geopolitical worries and uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. elections as their primary concerns over the next six months.
What's next: The Fed projects Texas' job growth will cool to around 2% this year.
Reality check: These are just projections. Recession concerns could return, the costs of goods could continue increasing, and consumers could end up spending less than expected this year.