Jan 3, 2023 - Real Estate

Real estate experts' hot housing takes of 2023

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

It's a new year, but some things never change. Austinites want to know what to expect from the city's housing market.

Why it matters: The beginning of 2022 left renters and buyers in a lurch as the demand for houses outpaced supply.

Yes, but: Average home prices started to creep down, especially in Austin's northern suburbs, between July and October, according to Zillow data.

  • In the greater Austin area, home prices have dropped by about 14% from their peak in May, going from a median of $560,000 to $480,000 in October.
  • Meanwhile, average rent increases have slowed as the market cools.

The big picture: We checked in with the experts for their crystal ball predictions of 2023.

What they're saying: Higher interest rates have helped calm down the competition in the Austin area, according to Ashley Jackson, 2023 president of the Austin Board of Realtors.

  • "This is a great reminder that 2023 will be a great time to buy a home without having to go wildly over the asking price, as buyers have in the past few years," Jackson says.

Yes, but: Sellers who don't have to sell will choose not to sell, which will keep available home inventory in check, according to Kent Redding of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices.

Of note: You won't have to go too far from the city center to find a good deal, said Ryan Rodenbeck, the owner of and a broker with Spyglass Realty.

  • "You can still find a home for under $400,000 within 30 minutes of Austin," Rodenbeck said. "There are still relatively affordable homes nearby in Cedar Park, Pflugerville, Leander and Liberty Hill."
  • Housing inventory is likely to increase in 2023, but not as much as we need it to as homebuilders are cautious as they head into the new year, Rodenbeck added.

What to watch: How Austin's job market will continue to impact housing.

  • The metro area's unemployment rate remained steady in November at 2.8%, despite recent layoffs and fears of a recession, per the latest figures available.
  • "Austin is a healthier market than any other in the country," Rodenbeck said. "That's because we have historically performed better than other markets in the U.S. during a recession or slow down. There are more eyes than ever from people who want to visit and live here."

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