It's still early days in a possible impeachment process, but "it would be complacent to think that the impeachment process just adds another ring to the circus," cross-asset strategists at JPMorgan warn in a note to clients.
What they're saying: They point out 4 important variables about the expected impeachment drama in Washington:
- "US constitutional conflicts like the impeachment process are rare events, with [prior] market outcomes too context-specific" to use as a rubric.
- "The unique context now involves four elements — global growth slowdown, classic late-cycle vulnerabilities, high market valuations but somewhat defensive investor positioning."
- The "international wildcards are the implications for US-China trade and US-Iran relations."
- "The domestic wildcard is the implication for 2020 Presidential and Senate elections."
Be smart: Analysts at BMO Capital Markets point out that the Fed was "in the midst of a 75 bp fine-tuning series of rate cuts" during former President Bill Clinton's impeachment scandal and "should probably get more credit for the positive growth sentiment than the risk of a presidential ousting."