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Reproduced from Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

Immigration is projected to drive most population growth in the United States by 2030, and cutting immigration levels will do little to alter the nation's coming racial and ethnic transformation, according to a new Census Bureau study on population projections.

Why it matters: A growing population will be essential to the U.S.'s long-term economic growth.

The big picture: If the rate of immigration to the U.S. was cut in half, population growth would slow, but still depend on immigrants, the study found. Non-white Americans would also still become the majority by 2060.

  • If immigrants were altogether stopped from coming into the U.S. — a dramatic, purely hypothetical scenario — the population would begin to decline in 2035.
  • In that same scenario, non-Hispanic, white peoples' share of the population would still drastically decline, barely maintaining a majority in 2060.

How we got here: Birth rates are falling and death rates are expected to climb as the large Boomer generation ages. Together, the two trends are slowing what is called the "natural increase" of the population.

  • Immigrants will not only keep the population growing by moving to the U.S., but also by having children, which adds to natural increase.

Go deeper: The aging, childless future

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Updated 27 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 30,911,999 — Total deaths: 959,059— Total recoveries: 21,147,903Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30p.m. ET: 6,796,384 — Total deaths: 199,474 — Total recoveries: 2,590,671 — Total tests: 95,108,559Map.
  3. Politics: Testing czar on Trump's CDC contradictions: "Everybody is right" Ex-FDA chief: Career scientists won't be "easily cowed" by political vaccine pressure.
  4. Education: What we overlooked in the switch to remote learning.
  5. Health: The dwindling chances of eliminating COVID-19 — 7 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week.
  6. World: England sets £10,000 fine for breaking self-isolation rules — The countries painting their pandemic recoveries green.

Arrest over letter to Trump containing poison ricin

President Trump returning to the White House from Minnesota on Sept. 18. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

A suspect was arrested for allegedly "sending a suspicious letter" after law enforcement agents intercepted an envelope addressed to President Trump containing the poison ricin, the FBI confirmed in an emailed statement to Axios Sunday.

Details: The suspect, a woman, was arrested while trying to enter New York from Canada, law enforcement forces said.

Trump campaign goes all in on Pennsylvania

Trump poster in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Photo: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

The president's campaign is placing more importance on Pennsylvania amid growing concern that his chances of clinching Wisconsin are slipping, Trump campaign sources tell Axios.

Driving the news: Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, twice Wisconsin's number, actually has been trending higher in recent public and internal polling, a welcome development for the campaign.