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Expand chart
Data: Migration Policy Institute; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios. Note: CHIP is not included in the proposal at this time. Census data could not separate CHIP from Medicaid.

A new rule proposed by the Trump administration over the weekend would disqualify some immigrants from visas and green cards if they use — or are likely to use — federal safety net programs such as Medicaid, food stamps and Section 8 housing vouchers.

Why it matters: There are millions of immigrants in the U.S. who use these programs, according to the Migration Policy Institute's analysis of Census data, and the group estimates that 31% of all non-citizens would be impacted if the rule is finalized. Those applying to be admitted to the the U.S. would also face increased scrutiny of their financial stability and prospects.

Between the lines: There are three key ways the proposed rule would impact the immigrant community, Migration Policy Institute senior fellow Mark Greenberg told Axios:

  1. Legal immigrants: It would be increasingly difficult for legal immigrants who qualify for the specified public benefits to obtain green cards. For some, a denial could even lead to their deportation. Jason Boyd, policy counsel at American Immigration Lawyers Association, told Axios that the rule would "endanger the well-being of families throughout the nation while placing all too many of them at risk of separation."
  2. New immigrants: Immigrants applying for U.S. visas would face tougher tests determining whether they are considered a "public charge." Under current policy, only immigrants who would be primarily dependent on government assistance are considered a public charge, but the proposed rule would greatly broaden that definition.
  3. The chilling effect: Greenberg told Axios he expects the rule to discourage many immigrants from using public benefits they may need out of fear of losing their legal status.

The other side: The Trump administration sees the change as promoting self-sufficiency among immigrants, according to the proposed rule. Homeland Security secretary Kirstjen Nielsen noted in announcing the proposal that under federal law, "those seeking to immigrate to the United States must show they can support themselves financially.”

It's impossible to know exactly how many immigrants could end up being denied a green card or visa due to the many factors that would determine who is considered a public charge. And immigration experts worry it could lead to inconsistent decision making.

“The proposed rule would prove broadly destructive... It would also raise to new heights the Trump administration’s invisible wall, further shutting out legal immigrants from the country."
— Jason Boyd

The proposal was softened from earlier, leaked versions. At this point, it does not include CHIP, which provides health coverage for low-income children. The proposed rule asks for comments on whether CHIP should be included in the final version, however.

The exceptions:

  • Many immigrants aren't even eligible for certain public benefits until they have had a green card for a certain number of years, which means the rule wouldn't apply to them, writes Vox's Dara Lind.
  • The rule will also not be applied retroactively — only to immigrants who enroll in social safety net programs after the final rule is implemented.
  • Refugees and asylum seekers are also exempt, and immigrants can obtain benefits for their U.S. citizen children without penalty.

Go deeper

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29 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden starts negotiating to raise capital gains tax rate

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Biden wants to nearly double the capital gains tax paid by wealthy Americans, as first reported yesterday by Bloomberg and confirmed by Axios.

Counterintuitive: Biden's plan is better for private fund managers (hedge, PE, VC, etc.) than what he proposed during the campaign.

Scoop: Caitlyn Jenner makes it official for California governor

Caitlyn Jenner. Photo: Paul Archuleta/Getty Images

Former Olympic decathlete and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner has filed her initial paperwork to run for governor of California and will officially announce her bid later today, her campaign tells Axios.

The big picture: Jenner, a longtime Republican, is seeking to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recall election, hoping her celebrity status and name recognition can yield an upset in the nation's most populous state.

Kendall Baker, author of Sports
1 hour ago - Sports

New laws, new rules bring big changes to college sports

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The college sports landscape could change more in the next six months than it has in the last 50 years, as the NCAA grapples with new competition, new laws and new rules.

How it works... 1. Startup leagues: Investors are flocking to new leagues that aim to compete with the NCAA, evidence of just how much opposition there is to the amateurism model — and how much belief there is in new ones.