Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with the Axios AM and PM newsletters. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to the Axios Closer newsletter for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios Pro Rata

Dive into the world of dealmakers across VC, PE and M&A with Axios Pro Rata. Delivered daily to your inbox by Dan Primack and Kia Kokalitcheva.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with the Axios Sports newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Des Moines newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Tampa Bay newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Austin news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Austin newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Atlanta news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Atlanta newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Philadelphia news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Philadelphia newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Chicago news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Chicago newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top DC news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios DC newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Stock indexes around the globe have been roaring higher since the start of the year, but expectations of improved economic growth and soothed international tensions may be getting a bit ahead of themselves.

Driving the news: The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook Monday, showing yet another revision lower of its expectations for global growth in 2019 and 2020. IMF head Kristalina Georgieva also issued a number of warnings, suggesting that the worst may not have passed yet.

  • "If I were to mark the words that come to my mind at the start of this decade it would be increased uncertainty," she said on Friday during a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "And we know that uncertainty is not a friend to investment, growth and jobs."

Why it matters: Economists and market watchers worry that if trade and the manufacturing sector do not improve soon, the health of the global economy could be at risk.

  • While the IMF said "tentative signs that manufacturing activity and global trade are bottoming out" have helped boost market sentiment, they also noted that "few signs of turning points are yet visible in global macroeconomic data."

Yes, but: Georgieva told Axios following her speech that she understands why stock investors have gotten especially bullish lately, even in light of the IMF's worsening assessment of global growth.

  • Sure, "90% of the world’s economy by GDP has slowed down simultaneously, but it doesn’t mean there is no growth," she said. "For the next year and year to follow we are a bit more optimistic."

Watch this space: Pessimism and worry were the big themes during last year's impressive run for global equities, but that feeling reversed itself in the fourth quarter of 2019 and a number of metrics are starting to show that traders now have become overly exuberant.

  • Ned Davis Research warned on Friday that its sentiment index had reached “excessive optimism” territory. Earlier this month its analysts released a note saying the S&P 500's profits-to-earnings ratio was "well above fair value."
  • Renaissance Macro Research said its metrics show bullish sentiment has reached "the uncomfortable stage,” nearing levels last seen ahead of January 2018's "Volmageddon" selloff.
  • CNN Business' Fear & Greed index has risen to 89, indicating “extreme greed.”

Georgieva also signaled some worry over the overly complex nature of financial markets, particularly in the U.S. and other industrial countries like Japan and Western Europe, in her remarks on Friday.

  • "There is a point at which financial deepening is associated with exacerbated inequality and less inclusive growth," she said.

What it means: Deepening financial markets have long been considered beneficial for a country's growth and development, but Georgieva argued that research is beginning to show that there is a point at which financial depth becomes negative.

  • "The more sophisticated your financial system is … the less accessible it would be for less sophisticated people and firms, and then inevitably it would mean some degree of exclusion."

The intrigue: The 2020 Edelman trust barometer, released Monday, shows data may be starting to show the stress from overly deep financial markets in industrial countries.

  • Throughout the life of its survey, Edelman has found that the more economic growth a country has, the higher the trust in its institutions.
  • While that connection has held up in developing countries in the Middle East and Asia, it is now decoupling in industrial countries with deep and complex financial markets.

What they're saying: "[N]ational income inequality is now the more important factor in institutional trust," CEO Richard Edelman said in a release accompanying the results.

  • "Fears are stifling hope, as long-held assumptions about hard work leading to upward mobility are now invalid.”

The bottom line: Deutsche Bank investment strategist Parag Thatte points out, "Equity positioning, like the market itself, has run far ahead of current growth as investors price in a global growth rebound."

Go deeper: IMF chief applauds "bravery" of Trump tax cut

Go deeper

Updated 36 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: Concerns grow over CDC's isolation guidelines — Experts warn of more COVID-19 variants after Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: America's vaccination drive runs out of gas — Puerto Rico expands booster shot requirements.
  3. Politics: Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Mark Milley tests positive for COVID-19 — Vivek Murthy calls SCOTUS vaccine mandate block "a setback for public health."
  4. Economy: Report: World's 10 richest men doubled wealth during pandemicAmerica's labor shortage is bigger than the pandemic.
  5. States: America struggles to keep schools open — Youngkin ends mandates for masks in schools and COVID vaccinations for state workers.
  6. World: Greece imposes vaccine mandate for people 60 and older — French parliament passes COVID vaccine passport legislation.
  7. Variant tracker

Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Mark Milley tests positive for COVID-19

Photo: Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images

Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday.

State of play: Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler said in a statement that Milley — who is fully vaccinated and has received a booster shot — is experiencing "very minor symptoms" and is "working remotely and isolating himself."

Momentum builds to ban lawmakers from trading stocks

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Some progressive Democrats and MAGA Republicans are uniting on a proposal to ban sitting lawmakers from trading individual stocks, although it's unlikely that leadership will bring the bill up for a vote.

Why it matters: Members of Congress have great power to move stock prices, and great financial incentives to do so.