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The leaked draft of the GOP Obamacare repeal and replacement plan would swap out the law's income-based premium subsidies with tax credits that vary by age. They'd start at $2,000 a year for young adults under age 30, increasing for different age groups. The maximum would be $4,000 a year for people age 60 and older.

We were curious how that would change the amount of federal assistance different people would receive, so we used the Kaiser Family Foundation's subsidy calculator to compare the two. Here's what we found.

Expand chart

Data: GOP draft bill, Kaiser Family Foundation ACA premium calculator, Department of Health & Human Services; Methodology: Income ranges based on percent of federal poverty level. 150% = $18,090, 250% = $30,150, 500% = $60,300. Columbus area code: 43201, Prescott: 86301, Tampa: 33601; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Here are a few things we noticed (which line up with what we said last month in our story about winners and losers):

  • Younger, wealthier people fare better under the tax credit system. That's partially because Obamacare subsidies phase out at 400 percent of the federal poverty level, which means people who make more than that get no federal assistance. Tax credits would be given to everyone on the individual market, regardless of income.
  • Older, poorer people would pay more — sometimes a lot more — under the GOP plan. While older people can currently pay three times as much as young people in premiums, the tax credit only doubles between the highest and lowest age brackets.
  • There's huge local market variation here. For example, premiums — and therefore subsidies — in Prescott, Arizona are much higher than the other two marketplaces we chose. (Arizona was the state with the 116 percent increase in Obamacare premiums — by far the highest in the nation — because insurers got too many sick customers and had underpriced their premiums for years.)

Yes, but: Keep in mind that the leaked draft is more than two weeks old by now, so we don't know if the amount of the credits reflect the GOP's current thinking. But they have been talking about age-based credits for a long time, so it's safe to say that some version of this will end up in the repeal and replacement plan.

Corrects second sentence to clarify that the GOP tax credits are annual amounts.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: Coronavirus variant surveillance varies widely by state — Omicron cases confirmed in 5 U.S. states America probably won't lead the effort to understand Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters — Moderna loses patent battles tied to COVID vaccine.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate — Omicron travel bans are sign of what's to come.
  4. World: WHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming — Germany approves new restrictions for unvaccinated people.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

Prosecutors charge parents of Michigan school shooting suspect

Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The parents of a 15-year-old accused of killing four students and wounding seven other people at a Michigan high school have been charged with involuntary manslaughter, according to court documents.

Driving the news: James and Jennifer Crumbley were each charged with four counts of involuntary manslaughter.

3 hours ago - World

Putin to demand legal guarantee against NATO expansion in call with Biden

Biden and Putin meeting in Geneva in June. Photo: Mikhail Metzel\TASS via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not expand east — including to Ukraine — and plans to raise the issue in an upcoming phone call with President Biden, according to the Kremlin.

Why it matters: Russia has massed more than 94,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and could be preparing for a large-scale invasion at the end of January, Ukraine's defense minister said Friday.