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The leaked draft of the GOP Obamacare repeal and replacement plan would swap out the law's income-based premium subsidies with tax credits that vary by age. They'd start at $2,000 a year for young adults under age 30, increasing for different age groups. The maximum would be $4,000 a year for people age 60 and older.

We were curious how that would change the amount of federal assistance different people would receive, so we used the Kaiser Family Foundation's subsidy calculator to compare the two. Here's what we found.

Expand chart

Data: GOP draft bill, Kaiser Family Foundation ACA premium calculator, Department of Health & Human Services; Methodology: Income ranges based on percent of federal poverty level. 150% = $18,090, 250% = $30,150, 500% = $60,300. Columbus area code: 43201, Prescott: 86301, Tampa: 33601; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Here are a few things we noticed (which line up with what we said last month in our story about winners and losers):

  • Younger, wealthier people fare better under the tax credit system. That's partially because Obamacare subsidies phase out at 400 percent of the federal poverty level, which means people who make more than that get no federal assistance. Tax credits would be given to everyone on the individual market, regardless of income.
  • Older, poorer people would pay more — sometimes a lot more — under the GOP plan. While older people can currently pay three times as much as young people in premiums, the tax credit only doubles between the highest and lowest age brackets.
  • There's huge local market variation here. For example, premiums — and therefore subsidies — in Prescott, Arizona are much higher than the other two marketplaces we chose. (Arizona was the state with the 116 percent increase in Obamacare premiums — by far the highest in the nation — because insurers got too many sick customers and had underpriced their premiums for years.)

Yes, but: Keep in mind that the leaked draft is more than two weeks old by now, so we don't know if the amount of the credits reflect the GOP's current thinking. But they have been talking about age-based credits for a long time, so it's safe to say that some version of this will end up in the repeal and replacement plan.

Corrects second sentence to clarify that the GOP tax credits are annual amounts.

Go deeper

Officials warn 5 key tech sectors will determine whether China overtakes U.S.

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

U.S. intelligence officials responsible for protecting advanced technologies have narrowed their focus to five key sectors: artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, semiconductors and autonomous systems.

Why it matters: China and Russia are employing a variety of legal and illegal methods to undermine and overtake U.S. dominance in these critical industries, officials warned in a new paper. Their success will determine "whether America remains the world’s leading superpower or is eclipsed by strategic competitors."

3 hours ago - Health

Pfizer says COVID vaccine over 90% effective in kids

A health care worker preparing a Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine dose in New York City on Oct. 21. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Pfizer and BioNTech said their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective at protecting children between the ages of 5 and 11 from symptomatic infections from the virus, according to a study posted online by the Food and Drug Administration Friday.

Why it matters: Pfizer is seeking an emergency use authorization to vaccinate children — one of the last groups of Americans still largely ineligible to receive a coronavirus vaccine.

Changing the inflation conversation

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Inflation looks like it’ll run hot for longer than plenty of smart people thought it would. The conversation over just how much more Americans will have to pay for their stuff has taken on a new intensity, as supply problems show few signs of fading.

Why it matters: The rate of price growth has remained consistently strong in recent months — a time that some thought would bring cooling prices after an initial reopening spike. What goes on with prices will influence the decisions made by Congress, the Biden Administration, and the Federal Reserve.