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Data: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis; Cartogram: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios; Correction: A previous version of this cartogram contained a key that understated the extent of some states' losses.

There's a lot of skepticism in Washington over whether the latest Affordable Care Act repeal bill, proposed by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy, can pass. One of the many reasons is that a lot of Republican senators' states — particularly those that expanded Medicaid — would lose a lot of money.

Quick take:

  • Alaska is among the losers here, and it's hard to see Sen. Lisa Murkowski getting on board with this bill or this process.
  • Same goes for Sen. Susan Collins.
  • Sen. Rand Paul has said he's a no. Sen. John McCain was a "no" last time, largely on process grounds. The process hasn't changed. And this bill would hurt his state.
  • Two of those "no" votes would have to flip to "yes" — by the end of the month — for this bill to pass. And that's just the Senate.

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