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Data: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities analysis; Cartogram: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios; Correction: A previous version of this cartogram contained a key that understated the extent of some states' losses.

There's a lot of skepticism in Washington over whether the latest Affordable Care Act repeal bill, proposed by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy, can pass. One of the many reasons is that a lot of Republican senators' states — particularly those that expanded Medicaid — would lose a lot of money.

Quick take:

  • Alaska is among the losers here, and it's hard to see Sen. Lisa Murkowski getting on board with this bill or this process.
  • Same goes for Sen. Susan Collins.
  • Sen. Rand Paul has said he's a no. Sen. John McCain was a "no" last time, largely on process grounds. The process hasn't changed. And this bill would hurt his state.
  • Two of those "no" votes would have to flip to "yes" — by the end of the month — for this bill to pass. And that's just the Senate.

Go deeper

Supreme Court won't block Rhode Island's eased absentee voting rules

Photo: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

The Supreme Court said Thursday that it will not block Rhode Island's move to ease its requirements for absentee voting during November's election.

Why it matters: The decision is a loss for Republicans, who had requested an emergency order as the state is expected to begin mailing out its ballots.

Breaking down Uber and Lyft's threat to suspend services in California

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Uber and Lyft are ratcheting up the fight with California’s state government over the classification of drivers with a move that would deprive Californians of their ride-hailing services (and halt driver income).

Driving the news: On Wednesday, both companies said that if a court doesn’t overturn or further pause a new ruling forcing them to reclassify California drivers as employees, they’ll suspend their services in the state until November’s election, when voters could potentially exempt them by passing a ballot measure.

Trump announces normalization of ties between Israel and UAE

Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Photo: Artur Widak/NurPhoto; Samuel Corum; Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced a "historic" deal Thursday which will see Israel and the UAE open full diplomatic relations and Israel suspend its annexation plans in the West Bank.

Why it matters: This is a major breakthrough for Israel, which lacks diplomatic recognition in many Middle Eastern countries but has been steadily improving relations in the Gulf, largely due to mutual antipathy toward Iran.