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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As the "blue wave" looks more like a reality in the House, it's looking less likely that Democrats will take the Senate. It's a highly unusual split among competitive races in each chamber.

Driving the news: The competition for the House is playing out in the suburbs where Democratic candidates are making inroads around the country, while the Senate map is defined by rural red states where Democrats are most on the defensive.

Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight that shows competitive House races are "almost evenly divided" among the Northeast, Midwest, South and West, while any Senate tipping point would likely be in the South. And though "the Northeast is fairly important to the House map ... there’s almost nothing interesting happening in the Northeast on the Senate side."

  • The House districts with the closest races are also more educated than the rest of the country. Only 13% of the congressional districts most crucial to deciding the Senate have comparably high education levels.

The split can be seen in campaign messaging, too. Most Democrats in competitive House races are supporting some form of "Medicare for All." On the other side Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana touts in an ad being "pro-gun" and voting for Trump's border wall.

Why it matters: The impact of this split could be felt long after the 2018 midterm elections as Trump-aligned Republicans replace moderate Democratic senators and outspokenly progressive first-time candidates win Democratic seats in the House.

  • "We are on the verge of having two national ideological parties separated by geography in a way that we haven’t had in American history before," said Michael Steel, a GOP strategist who's worked with Jeb Bush, John Boehner and Paul Ryan.

Go deeper

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
29 mins ago - Economy & Business

The biggest obstacle to a wealth tax

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Taxing the rich is an idea that's back. An "ultra-millionaire tax" introduced by Elizabeth Warren and other left-wing Democrats this week would raise more than $3 trillion over 10 years, they say, while making the tax system as a whole more fair.

Why it matters: New taxes would be a necessary part of any Democratic plan to redistribute wealth and reduce inequality. But President Biden has more urgent priorities — and Warren's wealth tax in particular faces constitutional obstacles that make it a hard sell.

House passes sweeping election and anti-corruption bill

Photo: Win McNamee via Getty Images

The House voted 220-210Wednesday to pass Democrats' expansive election and anti-corruption bill.

Why it matters: Expanding voting access has been a top priority for Democrats for years, but the House passage of the For the People Act (H.R. 1) comes as states across the country consider legislation to rollback voting access in the aftermath of former President Trump's loss.

Updated 7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

House passes George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

Photo: Stephen Maturen via Getty Images

The House voted 220 to 212 on Wednesday evening to pass a policing bill named for George Floyd, the Black man whose death in Minneapolis last year led to nationwide protests against police brutality and racial injustice.

Why it matters: The legislation overhauls qualified immunity for police officers, bans chokeholds at the federal level, prohibits no-knock warrants in federal drug cases and outlaws racial profiling.