How higher turnout could help Trump in 2020

But here's the buried treasure — why huge turnout won't necessarily benefit Dems:

• "[T]he major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters ... — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states."
• "The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters ... — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states."

Why it matters: "If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close," writes Cohn.

• "Texas ... would emerge as the tipping-point state."
• "Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ... would barely budge."

The bottom line: "[H]igher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote."