Jul 20, 2019

How higher turnout could help Trump in 2020

President Trump walks out of the White House before departing for New Jersey on Friday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Higher turnout could help President Trump in 2020, even though his approval ratings are "under water" explains the New York Times' Nate Cohn.

"It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points."
— Nate Cohn

But here's the buried treasure — why huge turnout won't necessarily benefit Dems:

  • "[T]he major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters ... — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states."
  • "The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters ... — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states."

Why it matters: "If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close," writes Cohn.

  • "Texas ... would emerge as the tipping-point state."
  • "Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ... would barely budge."

The bottom line: "[H]igher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote."

Go deeper

Focus group: Trump's vulnerabilities with Minnesota swing voters

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

EDINA, Minn. — President Trump's absence of a plan on health care and on Social Security — compounded with voters' economic anxiety about a looming recession — could make him vulnerable with some swing voters here come 2020.

  • That was the main takeaway from our Engagious/FPG focus group last week, which included 7 people who flipped from Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, and 4 who switched from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton.

Why it matters: These voters don't feel that Trump is talking about the issues they care about most.

Go deeperArrowAug 12, 2019

Trump plants racial explosives in the urban-rural divide

Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

President Trump's onslaught of disparaging tweets calling Baltimore a "disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess" — and characterizing Maryland Democrat Elijah Cummings as failing to fix it — extends Trump's streak of vilifying big American cities and adds a racial spin that scores points with parts of his base.

The big picture: Cities, particularly coastal ones, are Democratic strongholds that have been protesting Trump policies like immigration and health care since day one of his administration.

Go deeperArrowJul 29, 2019

2020 candidates pouring cash into targeting the Rust Belt on Facebook

Data: Bully Pulpit Interactive 2020 Campaign Tracker; Note: Data from March 30 to July 27; Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

2020 candidates are pouring more into ads targeting Rust Belt states than some of the other early primary states, according to Facebook data pulled from Bully Pulpit Interactive.

Be smart: The data also shows most campaigns have a 50-state targeting strategy online. This is likely a reflection of candidates' push to develop broad-based support in order to hit the requirements necessary to qualify for the next round of Democratic primary debates in September.

Go deeperArrowAug 6, 2019