President Trump walks out of the White House before departing for New Jersey on Friday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Higher turnout could help President Trump in 2020, even though his approval ratings are "under water" explains the New York Times' Nate Cohn.

"It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points."
— Nate Cohn

But here's the buried treasure — why huge turnout won't necessarily benefit Dems:

  • "[T]he major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters ... — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states."
  • "The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters ... — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states."

Why it matters: "If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close," writes Cohn.

  • "Texas ... would emerge as the tipping-point state."
  • "Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ... would barely budge."

The bottom line: "[H]igher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote."

Go deeper

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 32,471,119 — Total deaths: 987,593 — Total recoveries: 22,374,557Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 7,032,524 — Total deaths: 203,657 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,483,712Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.
Mike Allen, author of AM
7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden pushes unity message in new TV wave

A fresh Joe Biden ad, "New Start," signals an effort by his campaign to make unity a central theme, underscoring a new passage in his stump speech that says he won't be a president just for Democrats but for all Americans.

What he's saying: The ad — which began Friday night, and is a follow-up to "Fresh Start" — draws from a Biden speech earlier in the week in Manitowoc, Wisconsin:

Trump prepares to announce Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court replacement

Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Photo: Matt Cashore/Notre Dame University via Reuters

President Trump is preparing to nominate federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana, a favorite of both the social conservative base and Republican elected officials, to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Republican sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Barrett would push the already conservative court further and harder to the right, for decades to come, on the most important issues in American politics — from abortion to the limits of presidential power. If confirmed, she would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the high court.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!