The health care deal by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray is the best chance for insurers to regain the Affordable Care Act subsidies President Trump wants to cut off. But there's no guarantee it can pass Congress and get to Trump's desk. Here's a look at the $1 billion in losses insurers would suffer through the end of this year if the subsidies end, per the consulting firm Avalere.

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Data: Avalere; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The bottom line: Florida, California, and Texas insurers would be hardest hit, with Florida insurers alone losing $200 million. They have to provide the subsidies to low and middle-income people even if they don't get reimbursed — but some will raise their rates or even pull out of the markets if they have to face those kinds of losses.

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