The health care deal by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray is the best chance for insurers to regain the Affordable Care Act subsidies President Trump wants to cut off. But there's no guarantee it can pass Congress and get to Trump's desk. Here's a look at the $1 billion in losses insurers would suffer through the end of this year if the subsidies end, per the consulting firm Avalere.

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Data: Avalere; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The bottom line: Florida, California, and Texas insurers would be hardest hit, with Florida insurers alone losing $200 million. They have to provide the subsidies to low and middle-income people even if they don't get reimbursed — but some will raise their rates or even pull out of the markets if they have to face those kinds of losses.

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Ben Geman, author of Generate
1 hour ago - Energy & Environment

Why the pandemic's carbon cuts still won't head off a climate emergency

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Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global carbon emissions from energy, which are the lion's share, will never fully come back from pre-pandemic levels — recovering from a pandemic-fueled decline but sinking again around 2027 with renewable energy on the rise — according to a BloombergNEF analysis.

But, but, but: It still won't prevent the planet from cooking, as the firm still sees enough emissions to lead to over 3.3°C of warming above preindustrial levels by century's end.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
3 hours ago - Economy & Business

Coronavirus surge is sinking consumer confidence

Data: Hamilton Place Strategies, CivicScience; Chart: Axios Visuals

The rise in coronavirus cases in certain parts of the U.S. is stunting confidence across the country, a crop of new reports show.

Driving the news: After stalling during the previous two-week period, overall economic sentiment declined for the first time in two months, according to the Economic Sentiment Index, a biweekly survey from data firm CivicScience and Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS).

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: Obama: Trump is "jealous of COVID's media coverage."
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  5. World: Putin mandates face masks.