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Evan Vucci / AP

A top Republican with close ties to the White House tells me that after the GOP failure on healthcare, a government shutdown — looming when a continuing resolution runs out April 28 — is "more likely than not... Wall Street is not expecting a shutdown and the markets are unprepared."

And Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group today will warn financial clients: "Hello April 29 government shutdown."

That's Day 100 of the Trump presidency, by the way.

A senior GOP aide disputed the bearish forecasts: "The White House and Republicans on the Hill cannot/won't risk a shutdown. Given the last week — it's out of the question."

  • Reality check: While the GOP may have the will, party strategists don't see the way: The bleak House GOP math remains, with no sign it'll change. And the GOP can't count on the twin hail Marys floated over the weekend: enlisting moderate Dems (as we reported yesterday), or the Congressional Black Caucus (as Jonathan Swan revealed in his Sunday-night newsletter, Sneak Peek).
  • The message CEOs took from Friday's fiasco, according to an executive at a money-center bank: "Holy crap! We may be facing the same crap on a shutdown threat, and on the debt ceiling. Holy crap! We may not get tax reform, or a repatriation bill, or infrastructure spend, or substantial changes to regulations."
  • Be smart: Job 1 for Republicans, who technically control the government, is to convince investors and voters that they have some path to getting things done. But first (Russert homage!), they'll have to convince themselves.
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Go deeper

6 hours ago - World

Biden seeks to reboot U.S. sanctions policy

Sanctions increased under Obama and dramatically under Trump. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

The Biden administration is rethinking the U.S. approach to sanctions after four years of Donald Trump imposing and escalating them.

The big picture: Sanctions are among the most powerful tools the U.S. has to influence its adversaries’ behavior without using force. But they frequently fail to bring down regimes or moderate their behavior, and they can increase the suffering of civilians and resentment of the U.S.

6 hours ago - World

Merkel's farewell spoiled by Poland crisis at EU summit

One last awkward EU "family photo." Photo: John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

Angela Merkel took up her vaunted mantle as Europe's crisis manager for what could be the last time tonight, as she urged the EU to find compromise in its showdown with Poland.

Why it matters: The European Commission has threatened to withhold over $40 billion in pandemic recovery funds after Poland's constitutional tribunal — stacked with loyalists from the ruling right-wing populist party — rejected the principle that EU law has primacy over national law.

Republicans who put it all on the line

Rep. Nancy Mace speaks with reporters after voting to hold Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

A small contingent of House Republicans risked their political futures on Thursday, they say, in the name of constitutional responsibility.

Why it matters: The nine Republicans who voted to hold former Trump aide Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress are now in peril of becoming political pariahs. They've opened themselves up to potential primary challengers and public attacks from their party's kingmaker — former President Trump.