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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

CFR President Richard Haass, author of "A World in Disarray," suddenly needs a more dire title. Pointing to "the world’s deterioration," he's eyeing the "U.S.-China trade war, hottest July ever, Hong Kong on the edge, odds of US-Iran, Turkish-Kurdish conflicts mounting, new India-Pakistan Kashmir crisis, Japan-S Korea diplo/eco confrontation, looming Brexit."

Why it matters: None of those are passing events. All are long-term crises that require expertise and bandwidth that are lacking in the always short-staffed Trump administration.

Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, in a letter to clients, calls them "geopolitical 'fat tail' risks":

  1. Cold War II: Tensions between the U.S. and China, he writes, have "hit a tipping point," with the risk of destabilizing global technology supply chains.
  2. U.S./Iran conflict.
  3. U.S./Russia cyberwar.
  4. Italy fiscal crisis.
  5. Turkey.
  6. China vs. Hong Kong.
  7. Trump and Taiwan.
  8. Brexit.
  • Bremmer's bottom line: The likelihood of every single one of these "is likely to increase over coming months. [I]f in a normal geopolitical environment these would be, individually, 1-5% scenarios, over the coming year they’re more like 10-30%. [I]n other words, we should expect at least one or two to actually happen. [A]nd that’s not priced into the markets right now."

Here's how Jeb Bush put it on Twitter:

Apart from the two tragic mass murders, this weekend saw: China's devaluation of the yuan and suspension of US ag exports into the country; Japan and South Korea in a full fledged diplomatic fight started over Japan's occupation of Korea 80 years ago; ... the escalation of the crisis in Hong Kong; India scrapping the special autonomous status in parts of Kashmir; Turkey amassing tens of thousands of troops along the Syrian border to attack the Kurds; Moscow police arresting 600 people for participating in an "unsanctioned rally" ... no progress on Brexit; and Iran interdicting an Iraqi fuel vessel.

Bush's punchline: "And to think many now believe that America's leadership in the world is not necessary."

Go deeper: The era of white nationalism

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Go deeper

Biden picks up his pen to change the tone on racial equity

Vice President Harris looks on as President Biden signs executives orders related to his racial equity agenda. Photo: Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images

President Biden is making a down payment on racial equity in a series of executive orders dealing with everything from private prisons to housing discrimination, treatment of Asian Americans and relations with indigenous tribes.

The big picture: Police reform and voting rights legislation will take time to pass in Congress. But with the stroke of his pen, one week into the job Biden is taking steps within his power as he seeks to change the tone on racial justice from former President Trump.

Most Senate Republicans join Rand Paul effort to dismiss Trump's 2nd impeachment trial

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Forty-five Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, supported an effort to dismiss former President Trump's second impeachment trial.

Why it matters: The vote serves as a precursor to how senators will approach next month's impeachment trial, making it highly unlikely the Senate will vote to convict. The House impeached Trump for a second time for "incitement of insurrection" following events from Jan 6. when a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol.

Texas judge temporarily halts Biden's 100-day deportation freeze

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A federal judge in Texas has temporarily blocked the Biden administration's 100-day freeze on deporting unauthorized immigrants.

Why it matters: Biden has set an ambitious immigration agenda, but he could face pushback from the courts.