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Exclusive poll: Recession fears are growing

Survey Monkey online poll conducted Dec. 17–18, 2018, among 2,301 adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points; Poll methodology; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Most Americans think the economy is growing now, but they're worried that a recession could be coming this year, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

Between the lines: Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans and independents, but majorities across the board say a recession could happen, including a slight majority of Republicans. That suggests an emerging economic anxiety that President Trump hasn't had to deal with until now.

By the numbers:

  • Nearly 6 out of 10 Americans think the economy is growing now, including 84% of Republicans, 47% of independents, and 36% of Democrats.
  • But more than 8 out of 10 Democrats and 6 out of 10 independents think a recession is likely during the next year.
  • Republicans are more evenly divided, but slightly more than half think a recession is likely.

The bottom line: If a recession does come, it could be mild, as Axios' Felix Salmon and Courtenay Brown have written. But it would take away the benefits of a booming economy that helped Trump during his first 2 years.

Methodology: The SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted among adults ages 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The survey was conducted Dec. 1718, 2018 among 2,301 adults. The modeled error estimate  for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and full crosstabs are available here.

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