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Expand chart
Survey Monkey online poll conducted Dec. 17–18, 2018, among 2,301 adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points; Poll methodology; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Most Americans think the economy is growing now, but they're worried that a recession could be coming this year, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

Between the lines: Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans and independents, but majorities across the board say a recession could happen, including a slight majority of Republicans. That suggests an emerging economic anxiety that President Trump hasn't had to deal with until now.

By the numbers:

  • Nearly 6 out of 10 Americans think the economy is growing now, including 84% of Republicans, 47% of independents, and 36% of Democrats.
  • But more than 8 out of 10 Democrats and 6 out of 10 independents think a recession is likely during the next year.
  • Republicans are more evenly divided, but slightly more than half think a recession is likely.

The bottom line: If a recession does come, it could be mild, as Axios' Felix Salmon and Courtenay Brown have written. But it would take away the benefits of a booming economy that helped Trump during his first 2 years.

Methodology: The SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted among adults ages 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The survey was conducted Dec. 1718, 2018 among 2,301 adults. The modeled error estimate  for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and full crosstabs are available here.

Go deeper

California wildfire explodes in size, destroys historic town

Battalion Chief Sergio Mora looks on as the Dixie fire burns through downtown Greenville, Calif. on Aug. 4, 2021. Photo: Josh EdelsonAFP via Getty Images

The small Sierra town of Greenville, California, was heavily damaged on Wednesday night into early Thursday as the Dixie Fire surged northward amid high winds, extremely dry air and hot temperatures.

The latest: The Dixie Fire, California's biggest blaze, continued to threaten communities in Plumas County into Thursday night, as more mandatory evacuation orders were issued in the region.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Top labor leader Richard Trumka dies unexpectedly at 72

Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka, who led the largest federation of unions in the country for over a decade, has died at 72.

The big picture: Trumka began working as a coal miner in 1968 and would go on to dedicate his life to the labor movement, including as president of the 12.5 million-member AFL-CIO beginning in 2009.

Biden signs bill awarding Congressional Gold Medals to officers who responded to Jan. 6 attack

President Biden, joined by Vice President Harris, lawmakers and members of law enforcement and their families, signs legislation to award Congressional Gold Medals to law enforcement in the Rose Garden. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

President Biden signed legislation awarding Congressional Gold Medals to the law enforcement officers who defended the Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Why it matters: The Congressional Gold Medal is Congress' "highest expression of national appreciation," notes the New York Times.

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