Oct 8, 2019

Warren overtakes Biden in RealClearPolitics national poll average

Elizabeth Warren at the Giffords/March for Our Lives forum in Las Vegas. Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren has taken over as the top 2020 Democrat in the national RealClearPolitics average of polls for the first time this cycle.

Why it matters: While Warren holds just a 0.2-point average lead over Joe Biden, she's led the pack in the last two Quinnipiac polls and has consistently won more positive attention online than any other candidate in recent weeks.

  • An Oct. 8 Quinnipiac poll showed 29% of Democratic and independent voters say Warren is their top choice. Biden trailed 3 points behind.
  • Quinnipiac's Sept. 25 poll had Warren with a 2-point lead at 25% support.

"Warren maintains her strength in the Democratic primary, which has been consistently growing since the start of her campaign. This poll confirms her status as a co-frontrunner with Biden," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.

The bottom line: Warren's steady rise in the polls has officially changed the order of the primary field, which has otherwise remained relatively stable. Watch for whether this changes after next week's debate.

Go deeper

The problem with 2020 presidential polls

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday has Elizabeth Warren leading by seven points in the 2020 Democratic race while a Wednesday CNN poll gave Joe Biden a 15-point advantage — both among their biggest polling leads so far.

Why it matters: Those back-to-back — and seemingly contradictory — results highlight why looking at a single poll in isolation cannot paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the race, especially months before the first votes are officially cast.

Go deeperArrowOct 24, 2019

The Warren-Sanders turning point

Data: RealClearPolitics; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Nobody noticed it at the time, but in one week in April, the tide of the Democratic primary flipped irreversibly, leading to the emergence of Elizabeth Warren — not Bernie Sanders — as the clear progressive favorite in the 2020 field.

Why it matters: That week coincides with the addition of Joe Biden to the field and the story that has generated more interactions on social media than any other piece about Warren this year, according to data from NewsWhip exclusively provided to Axios: the release of her student debt cancellation plan.

Go deeperArrowOct 27, 2019

Elizabeth Warren is still Trumpworld's dream candidate

Photo Illustration: Sarah Grillo. Photo: Bauzen/GC Images

President Trump's allies still fear a general election matchup against a banged-up Joe Biden more than a run against an invigorated Elizabeth Warren, people close to the president tell Axios.

Driving the news: Warren has surpassed Biden in some primary polls, seemingly helped by the early coverage of Trump's efforts to get Ukraine to investigate conspiracy theories involving Biden and his son Hunter. And a Fox News poll now shows Biden and Warren each would lead Trump, 50% to 40%.

Go deeperArrowOct 13, 2019