Stock market

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All Stock market stories

What China's uneven recovery means for the U.S.

China and much of Southeast Asia look to be bouncing back strongly from the coronavirus pandemic as stock markets and much of the country's economic data are returning to pre-pandemic levels.

What's happening: "Our tracking points to a clear V-shaped recovery in China," economists at the Institute of International Finance said in a note to clients Tuesday, predicting the country's second-quarter growth will rise above 2% after its worst quarter on record in Q1.

Consensus grows about the Fed's impact on equities

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Axios Visuals

Minutes from June's meeting of Fed policymakers was released on Wednesday and showed the central bank is still ready to provide support "for some time" to markets.

Why it matters: With coronavirus cases rising, recent economic data largely moving backwards, and companies' earnings and revenue guidance slipping, the Fed looks to be the driving force behind the march upwards of stock prices.

Analysts expect soaring stock market despite slashed earnings forecasts

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Despite cutting expectations for companies' earnings by the most in history and revenue by the most since 2009, Wall Street analysts are getting increasingly bullish on the overall direction of the U.S. stock market.

What's happening: Equity analysts are expecting earnings in the second quarter to fall by 43.8% — the most since 2008's fourth quarter 69.1% decline.

Corporate earnings may recover from coronavirus slump by end of 2021

By the end of next year, corporate earnings may have recovered from the anticipated pandemic-induced slump — at least if analysts are right.

What's going on: EPS forecasts for this year have plunged to $128 per share from the $161 expected before the pandemic hit, according to FactSet.

Q2 was one for the record books

Photo: Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images

U.S. stock indexes closed out a record-breaking second quarter on Tuesday, with all three of the major indexes ending higher on the day and each finishing the quarter with their best performance in at least 20 years.

By the numbers: The benchmark S&P 500 ended Tuesday up 1.5% for its third positive close in four days.

Albertsons IPO raises below its initial plans at $16 a share

Safeway food store company owned by Albertsons. Photo: Don & Melinda Crawford/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Albertsons, an Idaho-based grocer whose brands include Safeway, raised $800 million in its IPO. The Cerberus-owned company priced 50 million shares at $16, below initial plans to offer 65.8 million shares at $18–$20, for an initial market cap of $7.7 billion.

Why it matters: This is one of very few 2020 IPOs to majorly miss expectations, and came on the same night that six other issuers beat their targets.

Corporate bond market gives more reassurance than in 2008

Data: ICE BofA Corporate and High Yield option-adjusted spreads; Chart: Axios Visuals

The V-shaped recovery is starkest in the stock market, where the Nasdaq has overtaken its pre-virus highs and where the S&P 500 is back to its frothy levels of last November.

The big picture: The health of the stock market provides reassurance that our current crisis will pass without the major loss of wealth that we saw in 2008-09.

How the Robinhood effect is moving the stock market

Reproduced from BCA Research using Bloomberg data; Table: Axios Visuals

A report from BCA Research published Monday finds Robinhood users are moving into speculative bets at an incredible rate, radically increasing holdings in three groups of stocks — airlines, cruise ships and mortgage REITs.

What's happening: "Retail investors have provided institutions with an opportunity to exit stocks in the three stressed groups," Doug Peta, BCA's chief U.S. investment strategist, writes in the note.

The coronavirus recovery may be W-shaped

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

U.S. economic data has shown improvement in recent reports, starting with May's nonfarm payrolls report and including new home sales, various Fed manufacturing indexes and retail sales, all showing better-than-expected rebounds.

Why it matters: The momentum could reverse quickly if the coronavirus pandemic picks back up and policymakers drag their feet on renewing stimulus measures, experts say.

Grocery chain Albertsons files for IPO after coronavirus boom

Photo: Mel Melcon/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

U.S. grocery chain Albertsons is finally going public after shelving its initial IPO plans five years ago amid market jitters.

Why it matters: Albertsons is one of the companies to see a boom in business during the current coronavirus pandemic. The offering would give it a valuation of more than $10 billion if its stock prices at the midpoint of its $18-to-$20.

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