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A trader is reflected in a market screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Just this morning, President Trump touted recent economic successes under his administration: "The economy is looking really good. It has been many years that we have seen these kind of numbers. The underlying strength of companies has perhaps never been better."

Yes, but: Economists are ringing alarm bells that a recession may soon follow. Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics' chief economist, told Bloomberg that 2020 is a "real inflection point." In the short-term, some economic forecasters believe the American economy will experience historically low unemployment and rising wages, but those developments could bring rising interest rates and decreased government spending in the years to come — eventually sparking an economic contraction.

Go deeper

USAID chief tests positive for coronavirus

An Air Force cargo jet delivers USAID supplies to Russia earlier this year. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS via Getty Images

The acting administrator of the United States Agency for International Development informed senior staff Wednesday he has tested positive for coronavirus, two sources familiar with the call tell Axios.

Why it matters: John Barsa, who staffers say rarely wears a mask in their office, is the latest in a series of senior administration officials to contract the virus. His positive diagnosis comes amid broader turmoil at the agency following the election.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
2 hours ago - Health

COVID-19 shows a bright future for vaccines

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Promising results from COVID-19 vaccine trials offer hope not just that the pandemic could be ended sooner than expected, but that medicine itself may have a powerful new weapon.

Why it matters: Vaccines are, in the words of one expert, "the single most life-saving innovation ever," but progress had slowed in recent years. New gene-based technology that sped the arrival of the COVID vaccine will boost the overall field, and could even extend to mass killers like cancer.

4 hours ago - Health

Beware a Thanksgiving mirage

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Don't be surprised if COVID metrics plunge over the next few days, only to spike next week.

Why it matters: The COVID Tracking Project warns of a "double-weekend pattern" on Thanksgiving — where the usual weekend backlog of data is tacked on to a holiday.