Mar 26, 2018

Economists warn next U.S. recession may coincide with 2020 election

A trader is reflected in a market screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Just this morning, President Trump touted recent economic successes under his administration: "The economy is looking really good. It has been many years that we have seen these kind of numbers. The underlying strength of companies has perhaps never been better."

Yes, but: Economists are ringing alarm bells that a recession may soon follow. Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics' chief economist, told Bloomberg that 2020 is a "real inflection point." In the short-term, some economic forecasters believe the American economy will experience historically low unemployment and rising wages, but those developments could bring rising interest rates and decreased government spending in the years to come — eventually sparking an economic contraction.

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Coronavirus dashboard

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  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 1,414,738 — Total deaths: 81,259 — Total recoveries: 298,642Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 387,547 — Total deaths: 12,291 — Total recoveries: 20,395Map.
  3. Federal government latest: Acting Navy secretary resigns over handling of virus-infected ship — Trump removes watchdog overseeing rollout of $2 trillion coronavirus bill.
  4. Business latest: America's food heroes in times of the coronavirus crisis. Even when the economy comes back to life, huge questions for airlines will remain.
  5. World latest: China reopens Wuhan after 10-week coronavirus lockdown.
  6. Wisconsin primary in photos: Thousands gathered to cast ballots in-person during the height of the coronavirus crisis in the U.S.
  7. 1 Olympics thing: About 6,500 athletes who qualified for the Tokyo Games will keep their spots in 2021.
  8. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
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Airline industry braces for a forever-changed world

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The airline industry got a $58 billion lifeline in the coronavirus federal aid package. But the path is unclear for these companies, whose operations and prospects will be forever changed by the global pandemic.

Why it matters: People may want to minimize travel for the foreseeable future. Investors, analysts and industry watchers are trying to determine how much airlines will need to spend — and how much more in lost revenue they'll see — while they adapt to the new reality.

Trump denies seeing Navarro memos warning about toll of coronavirus

President Trump said at a press briefing Tuesday that he "didn't see" memos from his trade adviser Peter Navarro warning in January and February that the coronavirus crisis could kill more than half a million Americans and cost close to $6 trillion.

Why it matters: Trump insisted that despite not seeing the memos, he did "more or less" what Navarro suggested by banning non-U.S. citizens from traveling from China effective Feb. 2.