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China's Taizhou Port. Photo: Yang Bo / China News Service / VCG / Getty

In addition to the multi-day bloodbath on Wall Street, the U.S.-China tariffs war will cost 190,000 American jobs thus far and shave a smidgen of GDP growth from the economy, projects Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

What they're saying: For months, President Trump has continued to gripe about the cost to U.S. workers of the U.S.-China trade imbalance. But, if Zandi is more or less right, the tit-for-tat trade attacks that he set off last week will cut close to a month's average growth in U.S. jobs, and 0.14% from this year's growth in GDP. "And the economic costs will mount quickly if the back-and-forth tariff hikes continue," he tells Axios.

  • While that may already look like trade war, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer tells Axios that it's not, but more like posturing. "Trump’s supporters and China will continue to create off ramps from the worst outcomes," Bremmer says.
  • But, he adds, if what's been announced gets implemented, "That will mean goods are more expensive, companies will be less profitable, the average worker gets hurt."

The soy bean example: As a window into why the economy will take this hit should the tariffs go ahead, look at soy beans. In a note to clients today, Goldman Sachs said U.S. soybean exports to China are worth $14 billion. To the degree the tariffs stay on, Latin American producers including Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay are likely to increase their planting, and potentially take away business from U.S. farmers.

How long this will last: GeoQuant, a New York research firm that uses artificial intelligence, says to expect at least a month more of trade-induced mayhem in the stock market.

  • But even that won't be the end of it, GeoQuant says, since the tariffs war are only one facet of Trump's palette of outbursts. "Markets will continue to be jolted by U.S. politics at least through the 2018 midterm elections," the firm said.

Go deeper

Updated 38 mins ago - Politics & Policy

British national named in Colleyville synagogue standoff

A law enforcement vehicle sits near the Congregation Beth Israel synagogue on Jan. 16. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

British national Malik Faisal Akram took four people hostage at a Texas synagogue outside Fort Worth on Saturday, the FBI said in a statement.

State of play: Authorities had initially declined to release the name of the 44-year-old suspect or identify the hostages, all adults, though police chief Michael Miller confirmed that one of those held was Rabbi Charlie Cytron-Walker, who leads the congregation.

Updated 50 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

  1. Health: Concerns grow over CDC's isolation guidelines — Experts warn of more COVID-19 variants after Omicron — WHO recommends 2 new treatments — What "mild" really means when it comes to Omicron — Deaths are climbing as cases skyrocket.
  2. Vaccines: America's vaccination drive runs out of gas— Puerto Rico expands booster shot requirements— Supreme Court blocks Biden's vaccine mandate for large employers.
  3. Politics: Vivek Murthy calls SCOTUS vaccine mandate block "a setback for public health" — Focus group says Biden weak on COVID response, strong on democracy
  4. Economy: America's labor shortage is bigger than the pandemic— — CDC COVID guidance for cruise ships to be optional starting Saturday — The cost of testing.
  5. States: West Virginia governor feeling "extremely unwell" after positive test — Youngkin ends mandates for masks in schools and COVID vaccinations for state workers — America struggles to keep schools open
  6. World: Beijing reports first local Omicron case weeks before Winter Olympics — Teachers in France stage mass walkout over COVID protocols.
  7. Variant tracker
6 hours ago - Sports

Novak Djokovic loses Australian visa appeal

Novak Djokovic of Serbia plays a forehand during a practice session ahead of the 2022 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 14, 2022. Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Tennis star Novak Djokovic left Australia on Sunday evening, facing a three-year visa ban after an appeals court in the country revoked his visa.

Driving the news: Djokovic will not be able to defend his Australian Open title when the tournament starts in Melbourne. The World No. 1 is looking to break a three-way tie with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal for most Grand Slam men's singles titles.

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