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China's Taizhou Port. Photo: Yang Bo / China News Service / VCG / Getty

In addition to the multi-day bloodbath on Wall Street, the U.S.-China tariffs war will cost 190,000 American jobs thus far and shave a smidgen of GDP growth from the economy, projects Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

What they're saying: For months, President Trump has continued to gripe about the cost to U.S. workers of the U.S.-China trade imbalance. But, if Zandi is more or less right, the tit-for-tat trade attacks that he set off last week will cut close to a month's average growth in U.S. jobs, and 0.14% from this year's growth in GDP. "And the economic costs will mount quickly if the back-and-forth tariff hikes continue," he tells Axios.

  • While that may already look like trade war, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer tells Axios that it's not, but more like posturing. "Trump’s supporters and China will continue to create off ramps from the worst outcomes," Bremmer says.
  • But, he adds, if what's been announced gets implemented, "That will mean goods are more expensive, companies will be less profitable, the average worker gets hurt."

The soy bean example: As a window into why the economy will take this hit should the tariffs go ahead, look at soy beans. In a note to clients today, Goldman Sachs said U.S. soybean exports to China are worth $14 billion. To the degree the tariffs stay on, Latin American producers including Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay are likely to increase their planting, and potentially take away business from U.S. farmers.

How long this will last: GeoQuant, a New York research firm that uses artificial intelligence, says to expect at least a month more of trade-induced mayhem in the stock market.

  • But even that won't be the end of it, GeoQuant says, since the tariffs war are only one facet of Trump's palette of outbursts. "Markets will continue to be jolted by U.S. politics at least through the 2018 midterm elections," the firm said.

Go deeper

Harry and Meghan accuse British royal family of racism

Photo: Joe Pugliese/Harpo Productions via Reuters

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle delivered a devastating indictment of the U.K. royal family in their conservation with Oprah Winfrey: Both said unnamed relatives had expressed concern about what the skin tone of their baby would be. And they accused "the firm" of character assassination and "perpetuating falsehoods."

Why it matters: An institution that thrives on myth now faces harsh reality. The explosive two-hour interview gave an unprecedented, unsparing window into the monarchy: Harry said his father and brother "are trapped," and Markle revealed that the the misery of being a working royal drove her to thoughts of suicide.

Updated 3 hours ago - Axios Twin Cities

In photos: Thousands rally for George Floyd ahead of Derek Chauvin's trial

Demonstrators on March 7 outside the Hennepin County Government Center, where the trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, charged with murdering George Floyd, will begin in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

Thousands of protesters marched through Minneapolis' streets Sunday, urging justice for George Floyd on the eve of the start of former police officer Derek Chauvin's trial over the 46-year-old's death, per AFP.

The big picture: Chauvin faces charges for second-degree murder and manslaughter over Floyd's death last May, which ignited massive nationwide and global protests against racism and for police reform. His trial is due to start Monday, with jury selection procedures.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
7 hours ago - Health

Pfizer CEO feels "liberated" after taking COVID vaccine

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla. Photo: "Axios on HBO"

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla tells "Axios on HBO" that he recently received his first of two doses of the company's coronavirus vaccine.

Why it matters: Bourla told CNBC in December that company polling found that one of the most effective ways to increase confidence in the vaccine was to have the CEO take it.

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