Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

When schools close down, the whole economy suffers.

Why it matters: Beyond the stress of overwhelmed parents or the cabin fever of restless kids, closing schools for COVID-19 could cost about $700 billion in lost revenue and productivity, according to a Barron's analysis — a whopping 3.5% of GDP.

How it works: Schools exist to educate children — but they also serve a vitally important child care function, looking after kids so that their parents can go to work.

  • Parents are losing work hours — or even quitting their jobs — as schools and day-care centers remain closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That hinders economic growth.

By the numbers: Working parents make up around a third of the U.S. workforce.

  • 13% of them lost their jobs or cut back hours due to child care challenges during the pandemic, according to a June survey conducted by Northeastern University. And even if parents can work and care for their kids at the same time, it's impossible to be as productive.
  • On average, a working parent loses around eight hours a week — or a full workday — due to pandemic-era childcare responsibilities, per research by Alicia Modestino, an economist at Northeastern University.

That goes up to 10 hours per week when considering lower-income Americans or people of color. Both groups are disproportionately represented in essential, in-person jobs and can't make up for lost time with early mornings or late nights.

What they're saying: "This is a big drag on the economy," Modestino tells Axios. "Working parents are in every state, in every industry, and in every occupation. The macro implications are really, really big."

  • "Even if you’re lucky enough to have a teleworking situation, it’s really hard to work at full capacity when you’re essentially acting as a teaching assistant," adds Misty Heggeness, a visiting scholar at the Minneapolis Fed.

The bottom line: Schools are a key part of the engine driving the American economy. When they close, everybody suffers.

Go deeper

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
Sep 25, 2020 - Health

Where bringing students back to school is most risky

Data: Coders Against COVID; Note: Rhode Island and Puerto Rico did not meet minimum testing thresholds for analysis. Values may not add to 100% due to rounding; Cartogram: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Schools in Southern and Midwestern states are most at risk of coronavirus transmission, according to an analysis by Coders Against COVID that uses risk indicators developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The big picture: Thankfully, schools have not yet become coronavirus hotspots, the Washington Post reported this week, and rates of infection are lower than in the surrounding communities. But that doesn't mean schools are in the clear, especially heading into winter.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
Sep 24, 2020 - Economy & Business

The American economic paradox

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

It's the rebound economists didn't see coming.

Why it matters: America did nothing that should have been necessary to really get the economy moving again. We didn't get the coronavirus under control, and we gave up on fiscal stimulus after a single short-lived round of it. Nevertheless, we're about to close out by far the strongest quarter of economic growth in American history.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 32,844,146 — Total deaths: 994,208 — Total recoveries: 22,715,726Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,078,798 — Total deaths: 204,497 — Total recoveries: 2,750,459 — Total tests: 100,492,536Map.
  3. States: New York daily cases top 1,000 for first time since June — U.S. reports over 55,000 new coronavirus cases.
  4. Health: The long-term pain of the mental health pandemicFewer than 10% of Americans have coronavirus antibodies.
  5. Business: Millions start new businesses in time of coronavirus.
  6. Education: Summer college enrollment offers a glimpse of COVID-19's effect.