Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

This Sunday will be America's biggest test yet for whether people can social distance long enough to flatten the coronavirus curve.

Why it matters: Glimmers of hope in New York and San Francisco aren't a license to mingle. For many families, the holiday could pit relative against relative over how seriously to take social distancing on one of the biggest family gathering days of the year.

The big picture: Thousands of Americans died from coronavirus this week, and New York has more cases than every country outside the U.S.

  • The city's first wave of infections appears to be flattening, and the nightmare scenarios have yet to play out in the U.S.
  • But lifting the lockdown "after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing," the N.Y. Times reports, citing government projections.
  • Countries previously considered success stories have been forced to impose new lockdowns, including Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

Easter Sunday is a high-attendance day for Christian churches, and many other families plan gatherings around the secular edition.

  • Pews will be empty this year, and Easter egg hunts will be limited to parents and children.
  • Jewish families felt their own pain earlier this week, sparking a wave of virtual Passover Seders.

Between the lines: Group gatherings, including religious events and family celebrations, appear to be a major contributor to community spread, Axios' Marisa Fernandez reports.

  • Local outbreaks stemmed from joyful celebrations among ultra-Orthodox Jews in New York, a quinceañera in central Nebraska and a 70s-themed party for local politicos at Trump National Golf Club, Los Angeles, the Washington Post reports.
  • Funerals in Chicago and Georgia have also been identified as the source of major outbreaks.

One indicator people may be keeping their distance: Customers have been buying less food for their family gatherings.

  • A restaurant owner in Rayne, Louisiana said the volume of crawfish sales have dramatically decreased for annual crawfish boils, The Advocate reports. 

The bottom line: Lockdowns won't lift "until we know this country is going to be healthy," President Trump said today.

  • "We don’t want to go back and start doing it over again, even though it would be in a smaller scale.” 

Go deeper

Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 19,282,972 — Total deaths: 718,851 — Total recoveries — 11,671,491Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 4,937,441 — Total deaths: 161,248 — Total recoveries: 1,623,870 — Total tests: 60,415,558Map.
  3. Politics: Trump says he's prepared to sign executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Education: Cuomo says all New York schools can reopen for in-person learning.
  5. Public health: Surgeon general urges flu shots to prevent "double whammy" with coronavirus — Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases.
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.

Warren and Clinton to speak on same night of Democratic convention

(Photos: Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton both are slated to speak on the Wednesday of the Democratic convention — Aug. 19 — four sources familiar with the planning told Axios.

Why it matters: That's the same night Joe Biden's running mate (to be revealed next week) will address the nation. Clinton and Warren represent two of the most influential wise-women of Democratic politics with the potential to turn out millions of establishment and progressive voters in November.

Trump considering order on pre-existing condition protections, which already exist

Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced on Friday he will pursue an executive order requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions, something that is already law.

Why it matters: The Affordable Care Act already requires insurers to cover pre-existing conditions. The Trump administration is currently arguing in a case before the Supreme Court to strike down that very law — including its pre-existing condition protections.