Data: The Cook Political Report, April 29. Graphic: Doug Sosnik

Democrats smell blood and have momentum in this year's Senate and House races, Doug Sosnik, a former White House political director for President Clinton, writes in the latest of his popular "big thinks" political decks.

The big picture: Since President Trump's election, Republicans have lost 42 House seats (and control of the House), 10 governorships, and well over 450 state legislative seats. Democrats have taken full control of government in 10 states.

  • Since Trump was last on the ballot, the realignment of the parties has made it very difficult for Republicans to do well in swing and suburban areas.

The state of play: Democrats' strong candidate recruitment and fundraising, combined with declines in Trump’s approval, have significantly increased the party's chances of taking back the Senate this fall.

  • Republicans have nearly double the seats at risk — 23 to Democrats’ 12.

The Cook Political Report rates eight Republican seats as either "toss-up" or "lean Republican," with just one Democratic seat leaning Democratic. Sen. Doug Jones' (D-Ala.) seat is a likely GOP pickup.

  • The D math: If Joe Biden is elected, Democrats need to pick up a net of three seats to regain Senate control. Assuming an Alabama loss, Dems need to win four seats currently held by the GOP.
  • The R math: Four GOP seats (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina) are considered most at risk.

The full deck.

The full memo.

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