Data: The Cook Political Report, April 29. Graphic: Doug Sosnik

Democrats smell blood and have momentum in this year's Senate and House races, Doug Sosnik, a former White House political director for President Clinton, writes in the latest of his popular "big thinks" political decks.

The big picture: Since President Trump's election, Republicans have lost 42 House seats (and control of the House), 10 governorships, and well over 450 state legislative seats. Democrats have taken full control of government in 10 states.

  • Since Trump was last on the ballot, the realignment of the parties has made it very difficult for Republicans to do well in swing and suburban areas.

The state of play: Democrats' strong candidate recruitment and fundraising, combined with declines in Trump’s approval, have significantly increased the party's chances of taking back the Senate this fall.

  • Republicans have nearly double the seats at risk — 23 to Democrats’ 12.

The Cook Political Report rates eight Republican seats as either "toss-up" or "lean Republican," with just one Democratic seat leaning Democratic. Sen. Doug Jones' (D-Ala.) seat is a likely GOP pickup.

  • The D math: If Joe Biden is elected, Democrats need to pick up a net of three seats to regain Senate control. Assuming an Alabama loss, Dems need to win four seats currently held by the GOP.
  • The R math: Four GOP seats (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina) are considered most at risk.

The full deck.

The full memo.

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Go deeper

"He needs to cheat to win": Dems condemn Trump's USPS attacks

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi accused President Trump on Friday of using "sabotage tactics" in his latest attacks on the U.S. Postal Service and mail-in voting, and threatening the integrity of the 2020 election, they wrote in a letter.

The big picture: Trump this week vowed to block additional funding for the USPS in the next coronavirus stimulus package, linking the agency to his baseless claims that increased mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud.

Louisville officer: "Breonna Taylor would be alive" if we had served no-knock warrant

Breonna Taylor memorial in Louisville. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Sgt. Jonathan Mattingly, the Louisville officer who led the botched police raid that caused the death of Breonna Taylor, said the No. 1 thing he wishes he had done differently is either served a "no-knock" warrant or given five to 10 seconds before entering the apartment: "Breonna Taylor would be alive, 100 percent."

Driving the news: Mattingly, who spoke to ABC News and Louisville's Courier Journal for his public interview, was shot in the leg in the initial moments of the March 13 raid. Mattingly did not face any charges after Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron said he and another officer were "justified" in returning fire to protect themselves against Taylor's boyfriend.

U.S. vs. Google — the siege begins

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Justice Department fired the starter pistol on what's likely to be a years-long legal siege of Big Tech by the U.S. government when it filed a major antitrust suit Tuesday against Google.

The big picture: Once a generation, it seems, federal regulators decide to take on a dominant tech company. Two decades ago, Microsoft was the target; two decades before that, IBM.