President Trump at a New Hampshire rally on Monday. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump is capitalizing on three years of political, economic and global trends that have exceeded forecasts. He has also benefited from a run of extraordinary good luck.

Why it matters: Trump’s top advisers privately marvel at how he flirts with disaster only to catch a big break, whether it's the Iranians botching their response to his military attack or Democrats embarrassing themselves in Iowa on impeachment eve.

Trump started the year by killing Iran's top military leader, Qasem Soleimani, in a move — resisted by previous presidents — that imperiled U.S. troops in the Middle East and could have provoked war with Iran.

  • Instead, Iranians shot down a civilian airliner and lied about it clumsily, undercutting the regime at home and on the world stage.
  • On Feb. 6, Trump said the U.S. had killed Qassim al-Rimi, the al-Qaeda leader in Yemen.
  • Trump signed the "Phase 1" trade deal with China, and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that replaces NAFTA.
  • The economic and employment recovery, which the Obama administration set in motion after the 2008 collapse, built enough steam to allow Trump to build on the gains and take credit.
  • Democrats are on the defensive after Trump's impeachment acquittal and Iowa debacle.
  • A democratic socialist — Sen. Bernie Sanders — is surging in the race, causing the establishment to flip out. The fracturing field could mean a long fight that would put the eventual nominee in an even deeper hole against the incumbent's machine.
  • Some economists think that post-coronavirus, a recovery wave will push an economic surge closer to the election.

The bottom line: Trump is enjoying the same lucky breaks in politics that he enjoyed in birth and business.

Subscribe to Axios AM/PM for a daily rundown of what's new and why it matters, directly from Mike Allen.
Please enter a valid email.
Please enter a valid email.
Server error. Please try a different email.
Subscribed! Look for Axios AM and PM in your inbox tomorrow or read the latest Axios AM now.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m. ET: 32,390,204 — Total deaths: 985,302 — Total recoveries: 22,286,345Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m ET: 7,020,967 — Total deaths: 203,481 — Total recoveries: 2,710,183 — Total tests: 98,476,600Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.
Mike Allen, author of AM
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Biden pushes unity message in new TV wave

A fresh Joe Biden ad, "New Start," signals an effort by his campaign to make unity a central theme, underscoring a new passage in his stump speech that says he won't be a president just for Democrats but for all Americans.

What he's saying: The ad — which began Friday night, and is a follow-up to "Fresh Start" — draws from a Biden speech earlier in the week in Manitowoc, Wisconsin:

Trump prepares to announce Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court replacement

Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Photo: Matt Cashore/Notre Dame University via Reuters

President Trump is preparing to nominate federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana, a favorite of both the social conservative base and Republican elected officials, to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Republican sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Barrett would push the already conservative court further and harder to the right, for decades to come, on the most important issues in American politics — from abortion to the limits of presidential power. If confirmed, she would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the high court.