Sep 25, 2019

The view on impeachment inside Trumpworld

Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Despite a day that could haunt Trump allies through history, Axios talked to several of them who weren’t despondent.

Here's what they hang their hats on: Expectations for the transcript of Trump's phone call with the president of Ukraine, which he said will be released today, are now higher.

More positives for Trumpworld:

  • If the House impeached Trump and the Senate refused to convict, as expected, the Dem base could be deflated.
  • The process could turn off apolitical suburban voters — a group Trump needs but has had trouble with.
  • Whatever the outcome, the hardcore MAGA crowd will feel aggrieved and jacked up.
  • An impeachment vote would squeeze House Democrats who won in districts carried by Trump.

Between the lines: For whatever bluster he'll muster, Trump knows that from the perspective of history, it's not good to be just the fourth American president to face impeachment. (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached but then acquitted by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned in the face of impeachment.)

  • Friends say Trump — who remains obsessed with allegations of Russian interference even after special counsel Robert Mueller had finished — hates that this is now part of his eternal narrative.

Go deeper ... "Locked and loaded": Washington braces for impeachment battle

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Impeached and re-elected

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

It’s looking more likely by the day that President Trump will be impeached by the House for his dealings with Ukraine. But if he is acquitted by the Senate — and then goes on to win a second term — Democrats will face a predicament neither party has confronted in U.S. history.

Why it matters: If Trump survives politically and is re-elected to serve another four years, Congress likely would have nowhere left to go in the event of another scandal, legal and political experts say — not because the House couldn’t impeach him again, but because it might be politically impossible to do so.

Go deeperArrowOct 10, 2019

Scoop: Trump's private concerns of an impeachment legacy

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

President Trump has told friends and allies he worries about the stain impeachment will leave on his legacy.

Driving the news: In a phone call with House Republicans on Friday, Trump articulated why he really doesn't want this. Impeachment, Trump said, is a "bad thing to have on your resume," according to a source on the call. Two other sources on the call confirmed the substance of the comment, but one said they recalled Trump phrasing it as "you don't want it [impeachment] on your resume."

Go deeperArrowUpdated Oct 7, 2019

The 2020 impeachment campaign

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

President Trump is increasingly likely to be impeached by the full House late this year or very early in 2020, on the eve of the first voting in presidential primaries and the official start of his reelection campaign.

Why it matters: This outcome, which seems more certain with each passing hour, means the presidential, Senate and House races will be consumed by impeachment.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Sep 28, 2019