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Marketers have almost doubled spending on digital video advertising since 2015, according to a new study from the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Also 80% of marketers and media buyers plan to increase spending in original digital video through the end of the year. But digital video ad revenue has a long way to go until it catches up to TV.

Expand chart
Data: eMarketer; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

The big question: Experts have long predicted that TV ad spending will eventually plummet, similar what happened in newspapers in 2000, but the timing will likely depend on a few factors, like retransmission and programming contracts, and most importantly, ad-buyer efficiency.

TV isn't dead, yet: Despite the explosion of mobile video, Americans still watch TV more than any other medium. Per Nielsen's latest Total Audience Report, U.S. adults spent 86% of their media viewing time with traditional TV, compared to only 14% for all other screens combined. However, digital investments now are still important, as these margins shift dramatically towards digital for younger audiences who are migrating their content consumption habits to mobile and cutting their cable cords in favor of cheaper, on-demand options.

"TV ad rates have without question gone up," says Steve Passwaiter, Vice President and General Manager at Kantar Media, a widely-used advertising measurement group. "Every year you hear about them (networks and cable channels) bumping up CPM'S (cost-per-thousand rates) by 8-10% just because it takes so many more spots to accomplish the same targeting goals than it did 10, 20 years ago. But at the same time, every year the subscription numbers keep shrinking, creating an artificially inflated supply and demand.

"For TV networks, right now, it's a perfect storm."

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
44 mins ago - Energy & Environment

Laurene Powell Jobs' $3.5 billion climate campaign

Laurene Powell Jobs, president of Emerson Collective, is investing $3.5 billion in her new climate-action group, the Waverley Street Foundation — all to be spent in 10 years, as a way to show urgency on the issue.

  • Then the group will sunset.

The big picture: The foundation "will focus on initiatives and ideas that will aid underserved communities who are most impacted by climate change," an official tells Axios.

R. Kelly found guilty of racketeering and sex trafficking

Photo: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images

Singer R. Kelly on Monday was found guilty of racketeering and eight counts of violating an anti-sex trafficking law, the New York Times reports.

Why it matters: Sexual misconduct allegations have surrounded R. Kelly's career, including a child sexual abuse image case in 2008 where he was acquitted. Multiple other victims have come forward to speak about the abuse in recent years.

German elections: After close result, jockeying to replace Merkel begins

Data: Preliminary results from German Federal Returning Officer; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) pulled off a come-from-behind victory in Sunday’s elections, 10 seats ahead of the Christian Democrats (CDU), which failed to finish top for the first time in 16 years.

State of play: SPD leader Olaf Scholz has said he’ll seek to form a government, but so too has Armin Laschet, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor as CDU leader.