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Computer model simulation of water vapor and winds in developing Hurricane Barry on July 12. Credit: Earth Simulator

A developing storm in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday, threatens to unleash one of the worst flood events in New Orleans' history this weekend.

The big picture: Because the storm, to be named Barry, is lumbering off the coast, it's pulling copious amounts of moisture from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and is poised to direct it like a firehose at Louisiana and Mississippi. The Mississippi River is already so high in the New Orleans area that heavy rain plus a storm surge could overtop the cities' river levees for the first time, flooding large parts of the city.

How it works: The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Barry will become a tropical storm by Friday, and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday, before making landfall along the coast of Louisiana.

  • The storm's winds are not the main threat, however.
  • Up to 2 feet of rain is likely to fall in parts of Louisiana as the storm wanders onshore like a car inching forward at rush hour. This rain could overwhelm New Orleans' pumping systems, causing a repeat of Wednesday morning's flash flood emergency.
  • The rain, combined with a storm surge of 3–5 feet from the incoming storm, could cause the Mississippi River to rise to near or above 20 feet in New Orleans.
  • The river levees protecting the city are 20 feet high, and haven't been tested in this way. (Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused failures in the city's storm surge protection system.)

Between the lines: The National Weather Service has issued a rare "High Risk" excessive rainfall outlook for coastal Louisiana, including New Orleans, three days in advance. Since this product became available in 2007, such day 3 outlooks have only been issued twice.

  • One such instance was for Hurricane Florence, which caused billions in flood damage in North Carolina in 2018, and the other was Hurricane Harvey, which unleashed the heaviest rainfall event the U.S. has ever experienced.
A tweet previously embedded here has been deleted or was tweeted from an account that has been suspended or deleted.

Why now? Ordinarily, a storm of this magnitude would not risk overtopping New Orleans' levee system.

  • However, the massive amount of rain that has fallen across the Plains, Midwest and Mississippi River Valley has created an exceptional antecedent condition that sets up a potentially unprecedented disaster.
  • The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge has been at flood stage since late February, an unprecedented stretch.

Climate change may be playing some role in this as well. While a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico during mid-July is relatively common, scientific studies show that as air and ocean temperatures increase, more rain is falling in heavy bursts, including from tropical cyclones.

  • Modeling studies show that future tropical cyclones will carry even more water vapor with them, and bring more flooding to the areas they hit. They may also have stronger winds, overall, than typical storms today.
  • Other research suggests that tropical storms and hurricanes are, in general, slowing their forward movement as the climate changes, which also favors major floods.
  • In addition, studies show that climate change can set in motion a series of unprecedented events, similar to a domino effect.
  • A study published in 2018, for example, projected greater instances of simultaneous extreme events with wide-ranging repercussions as global warming continues during the next several decades.

The bottom line: Residents of New Orleans, and indeed much of the central Gulf Coast, need to prepare now for a significant, dangerous storm.

Go deeper

20 mins ago - World

Gaza ceasefire under strain as Israel and Hamas feud over rebuilding

Egyptian excavators clear rubble on Wednesday in Gaza City. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images

The indirect talks between Israel and Hamas to stabilize the ceasefire in Gaza and begin the reconstruction process have made little progress, raising concerns of renewed violence.

State of play: Five weeks on from the ceasefire, Israel is threatening to hold up the reconstruction process, and Hamas this week rejected a UN plan to fund it, Israeli officials and Western diplomats tell me.

Pacific Northwest's hottest weather on record takes aim this weekend

Computer model projection showing the jet stream winds and "misery index" of surface temperatures on June 27, 2021. (Earth.nullschool.net). The circulation of jet stream winds shows the location of the "heat dome" over the Pacific Northwest.

A "historic" and potentially deadly heat wave is on tap for the Pacific Northwest into southwestern Canada this weekend into early next week, with never-before-seen temperatures possible in cities like Portland, Ore., and Spokane, Wash.

Why it matters: The heat wave will affect a region where many people lack central air conditioning, raising the likelihood for public health impacts. In addition, power demand is likely to spike at a time when hydropower resources are running relatively low due to drier than average conditions.

Supreme Court rules for cheerleader punished by school for Snapchat expletives

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, June 22, 2021. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Supreme Court ruled 8-1 Wednesday that a school district in Pennsylvania violated the First Amendment by punishing a cheerleader who used expletives in a Snapchat post sent while off campus.

Why it matters: The case pushed the boundaries of students' First Amendment rights and what schools can enforce outside school grounds, especially in the digital age.