The Democratic blue wave

Republican candidates have been underperforming President Trump in special elections.

Data: Daily Kos Elections, Ballotpedia; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Why it matters: Gains by Democratic candidates over Trump point to the party's energy and signal a brutal midterm season that could mean the return of Speaker Pelosi (but not necessarily the arrival of Majority Leader Schumer).

Go deeper: Democrats may have already won the House, but big warning signs for Senate Democrats