House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Capitol Hill with Rep. Adam Schiff. Photo: Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

While national support for an impeachment inquiry is growing, it's not a clear winner for Democrats in the most competitive House districts just yet.

  • That's according to an internal impeachment polling memo, obtained by Axios, that was sent to House Democrats Thursday night.

Why it matters: Their vulnerable members this cycle are the ones who helped the party win the House in 2018 because they were in districts that flipped from Republican or that Trump won in 2016. They're not in the clear yet, as an impeachment inquiry is only "slightly favorable 49-48," per Democrats' memo.

Two impeachment polls — a national survey and a battleground survey — were conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's pollsters.

  • Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) sent the memo to the caucus, which included specific messaging guidance:
"When discussing Trump’s actions, keep the language simple, direct and values-based. ... Emphasize the core value that no one is above the law. ... The whistleblower did the right thing by coming forward ... Demonstrate your constant focus on the biggest issues facing families in the country, specifically health care and wages."

Democrats' national impeachment polling found "voters back a Democrat who supports an impeachment investigation over a Republican who opposes an impeachment investigation by 11 points."

Don't forget: Part of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's pre-impeachment calculus was thinking about how to protect her most vulnerable members in their re-election efforts.

  • Now that they're moving toward impeachment — which has the potential to make this a very divisive election — Bustos pushed Democrats to take a more careful approach forward: "It reaffirms the strong position Democrats hold on this issue, due to the focus and restraint with which our Caucus has approached this pressing and serious matter," she emailed her colleagues summarizing her takeaway from the poll.

Go deeper: Read the memo here.

Go deeper

Updated 21 mins ago - World

At least 100 killed, much of Beirut destroyed in massive explosion

Photo: Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images

A major explosion Beirut, Lebanon has killed at least 100 people and injured over 4,000, according to the Lebanese Red Cross.

Driving the news: Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the explosions occurred at a warehouse that had been storing 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate for over six years.

Biden confidants see VP choices narrowing to Harris and Rice

Photos: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; Win McNamee/Getty Images

Confidants of Joe Biden believe his choices for vice president have narrowed to Sen. Kamala Harris and Susan Rice — and would be surprised if he picks anyone else.

The state of play: This is a snapshot of the nearly unanimous read that we get from more than a dozen people close to him.

An election like no other

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

The coronavirus will make the 2020 presidential election different from any in modern history: Voting that begins earlier, results that take longer, mail carriers as virtual poll workers and October Surprises that pop in September.

The big picture: Perhaps 80 million Americans will vote early, by mail or in person, Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, tells Axios. That's going to set up more of an Election Season than an Election Day — and increase the odds of national turmoil over the vote count.