Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Denver news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Des Moines news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Tampa Bay news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Charlotte news in your inbox
Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
The Democrats have a good shot at winning a majority in the House this November, and now there's even talk of the Senate being in play — but this chart shows why that's such a long shot.
Reality check: It would take a tsunami, not a wave. Of the 35 seats up in 2018, 26 are held by Democrats or independents who caucus with the Democrats. And 10 of them are up for re-election in states won by President Trump in 2016, while Republicans only have to defend one seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton.
How to read this chart: Each rectangle is a senator up for election in a given year. Seats on the left side of the chart are seats in states carried by a Democrat in the previous presidential election. Seats on the right side were last won by a Republican. The dots inside the rectangles indicate seats that changed parties in the election.
What to look for in the chart:
- 2014: Republicans flipped every Democratic seat in a red state and picked up two more seats in states won by Barack Obama in 2012.
- 2008: Democrats picked up eight seats — the largest single-year gain for Democrats since 1986.
- 2004: The last time Democrats defended 10 seats in red states — they lost six of them.
- 2000: The GOP held 13 seats in blue states and wound up losing six.