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Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan are guiding their parties into a competitive midterm election. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Democrats' advantage over Republicans has slipped from a +12 to a +4 advantage in just three months, per a new Washington Post/ABC News poll.

The big picture: Several factors have led to this shift. President Trump's approval rating has increased slightly to 40% since January; enthusiasm is now at equal numbers among Republican and Democratic voters (68%); those who think it's "extremely" important for a candidate to share their opinion of Nancy Pelosi favor Republicans by 16%; and voters who consider gun policy the top issue are split nearly equal.

Why this matters: Democrats are increasingly feeling more certain that they'll take control of the House come November, but this poll shows the important factors that could shift the results between now and then.

By the numbers:

  • 58% of adults say they will vote, but only 40% of voters under 30 say the same. Fewer African-American voters (54%) and Hispanics (39%) say they'll vote, compared to white voters (64%).
  • Pelosi might not be the election issue Republicans are banking on. Although 70% of Republican voters view her unfavorably, 60% of voters don't consider a candidate's stance on the House Minority Leader important.
  • Democrats are hoping strong turnout among women voters will help them. 56% of women surveyed are planning to vote and 55% of registered female voters favor Democratic candidates.
  • 75% of voters who want new gun laws support Democrats, while 80% who prioritize protecting gun rights support Republicans. The group that views gun control as the top issue is split, with 47% supporting Democrats and 46% favoring Republicans.

Be smart: There will be countless polls leading up to the 2018 election tracking these small movements among voters. Look for how specific issues (like tax reform and gun control) are shifting things for each party and how the candidates are adjusting their campaigns to reflect that.

Go deeper

20 mins ago - World

Putin to demand legal guarantee against NATO expansion in call with Biden

Biden and Putin meeting in Geneva in June. Photo: Mikhail Metzel\TASS via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not expand east — including to Ukraine — and plans to raise the issue in an upcoming phone call with President Biden, according to the Kremlin.

Why it matters: Russia has massed more than 94,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and could be preparing for a large-scale invasion at the end of January, Ukraine's defense minister said Friday.

A tale of two jobs reports

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

Whatever you think about the economy, you’ll find something in this morning’s conflicting jobs report to reinforce your views: America's job market is white-hot and the labor market is anemic.

Between the lines: The conflict comes from the two separate surveys the government uses to compile the report.

Elon Musk's mega-billion bounty

Photo: Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images

Here's how insanely rich Elon Musk is: He has unloaded $10 billion of his stock in the past month — and could do that 15+ more times given his silos of shares.